GDP reading: GDP dropped 0.1% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in April (March: +0.2% mom). On an annual basis, monthly...
Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Bulgaria's economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.9% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 2.8% average for Central & Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 2.8%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Bulgaria GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bulgaria from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Bulgaria GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 70.6 | 84.4 | 90.5 | 102.4 | 112.2 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 61.9 | 71.4 | 86.1 | 94.7 | 103.7 |
| GDP (BGN bn) | 121 | 140 | 168 | 185 | 203 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.0 | 15.3 | 20.6 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
GDP growth to stabilize in 2025: Economic growth is set to hover near 2024 levels this year as our panelists see rebounds in fixed investment and exports balancing out a deceleration in private and government spending. On the one hand, the upcoming euro adoption, greater political stability following January’s government formation and access to EU funds this year will sustain market sentiment, boosting fixed investment. On the other hand, easing real wage growth amid higher inflation will dampen household spending. Downside risks include renewed political instability, regional geopolitical tensions and an EU-U.S. trade war hitting export demand.
Panelist insight: Regarding the outlook, ING analysts Stefan Posea and Valentin Tataru said: “On the outlook, we continue to see growth remaining robust […] in 2025. The recent wage advancements and an expansionary fiscal policy should continue to benefit private and public consumption. Moreover, the Schengen ascension and broader regional projects like the Vertical Gas Corridor, Nato-led infrastructure upgrades and the Three Seas Initiative should also bring some early benefits to activity and productivity. That said, the political uncertainty could weigh on investments.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Bulgarian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Bulgarian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Bulgarian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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