GDP in Belarus
Belarus - GDP
Growth falls to three-year low in 2019
A second GDP estimate released by Belarus’ Statistical Institute (Belstat) confirmed that growth picked up mildly in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4: +1.6% year-on-year; Q3: +1.4% yoy). That said, full-year growth fell to a three-year low (2019: +1.2% yoy; 2018: +3.1% yoy), as a subdued external environment battered the economy over the course of the year.
The fourth-quarter pick-up was spearheaded by sturdier fixed investment growth, which jumped to a near two-year high at the end of the year (Q4: +11.7%; Q3: +6.1% yoy). However, household consumption growth fell to an over two-year low in the same quarter (Q4: +3.2%; Q3: +4.0% yoy), thus weighing on the overall result. Meanwhile, government spending growth was largely stable in the final quarter of last year (Q4: +0.5%; Q3: +0.4% yoy).
On the external front, metrics were somewhat more downbeat. Exports lost traction after rebounding in the third quarter (Q4: +2.7%; Q3: +3.5% yoy) as a frail global economy and still-sour trade relations with Russia weighed on external demand. Imports, meanwhile, accelerated in the same period (Q4: +10.2%; Q3: +5.2% yoy), thus further curbing the overall expansion.
Looking forward, the outlook appears increasingly gloomy as the economy is likely to tip into recession this year due to the fast-spreading global Covid-19 pandemic. Although Belarus has thus far taken an unorthodox approach by refusing to implement strict measures against the pandemic, the global fallout from Covid-19 is likely to begin to severely hamper both domestic activity and external demand in the coming months. A worse-than-expected coronavirus outbreak and uncertainty over economic and political relations with Russia are key downside risks to the outlook.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists continue to take recent developments into account and project the economy to grow 1.4% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021.
Belarus - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.7||-3.8||-2.5||2.5||3.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Belarus GDP Chart
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT).
|Exchange Rate||2.10||-0.36 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
April 3, 2020
The Belarusian ruble (BYR) plunged against the U.S dollar over the past month amid the increasing global economic fallout from the fast-spreading Covid-19 pandemic.
April 1, 2020
A second GDP estimate released by Belarus’ Statistical Institute (Belstat) confirmed that growth picked up mildly in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4: +1.6% year-on-year; Q3: +1.4% yoy).
March 17, 2020
Industrial production fell 0.8% on an annual basis in February, following a marked 5.8% dip in the opening month of the year, which had marked the sharpest contraction since November 2015.
March 10, 2020
Consumer prices rose 1.0% over the previous month in February, largely in line with January’s 0.9% increase but marking the strongest rise since February 2019.
February 18, 2020
Industrial production fell 5.8% on an annual basis in January, swinging from the previous month’s 4.3% expansion and marking the sharpest contraction since November 2015 amid a broad-based downturn.