GDP in Belarus

Belarus GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

Belarus - GDP

Growth falls to three-year low in 2019

A second GDP estimate released by Belarus’ Statistical Institute (Belstat) confirmed that growth picked up mildly in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4: +1.6% year-on-year; Q3: +1.4% yoy). That said, full-year growth fell to a three-year low (2019: +1.2% yoy; 2018: +3.1% yoy), as a subdued external environment battered the economy over the course of the year.

The fourth-quarter pick-up was spearheaded by sturdier fixed investment growth, which jumped to a near two-year high at the end of the year (Q4: +11.7%; Q3: +6.1% yoy). However, household consumption growth fell to an over two-year low in the same quarter (Q4: +3.2%; Q3: +4.0% yoy), thus weighing on the overall result. Meanwhile, government spending growth was largely stable in the final quarter of last year (Q4: +0.5%; Q3: +0.4% yoy).

On the external front, metrics were somewhat more downbeat. Exports lost traction after rebounding in the third quarter (Q4: +2.7%; Q3: +3.5% yoy) as a frail global economy and still-sour trade relations with Russia weighed on external demand. Imports, meanwhile, accelerated in the same period (Q4: +10.2%; Q3: +5.2% yoy), thus further curbing the overall expansion.

Looking forward, the outlook appears increasingly gloomy as the economy is likely to tip into recession this year due to the fast-spreading global Covid-19 pandemic. Although Belarus has thus far taken an unorthodox approach by refusing to implement strict measures against the pandemic, the global fallout from Covid-19 is likely to begin to severely hamper both domestic activity and external demand in the coming months. A worse-than-expected coronavirus outbreak and uncertainty over economic and political relations with Russia are key downside risks to the outlook.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists continue to take recent developments into account and project the economy to grow 1.4% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021.

Belarus - GDP Data

2014   2015   2016   2017   2018  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.7  -3.8  -2.5  2.5  3.1  

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Belarus GDP Chart

Belarus GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT).

Belarus Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.10-0.36 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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