Angola Oil

Angolan oil production inches up in March

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 99.41 per barrel in March, up 43.2% from February. On 31 March, the commodity traded at USD 118.35 per barrel, up 63.1% from 27 February. Prices skyrocketed at the fastest clip since August 1990 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war. Turning to production, Angolan oil output ticked up to 1.02 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March from February’s 1.01 mbpd; production undershot both the 1.11 mbpd expected by national oil firm ANPG and the 2016–2025 average of 1.31 mbpd.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for crude production in Angola to rise in 2026 from 2025, and then gradually increase further through 2029. In the short term, the nation’s second oil refinery—a joint venture between Gemcorp Holdings and Sonangol—began operations in May in Cabinda, boosting production ahead. Moreover, extensive oil sector reforms have unlocked substantial investments from international oil majors: New production from TotalEnergies and the start-up of the Agogo IWH project by Azule Energy—a joint venture between BP and Eni—will support output ahead. Still, downside risks and challenges remain, including aging oil fields and high costs and frequent maintenance at major wells that will continue to constrain production. Potential delays to projects pose a key downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan oil projections.

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