United States PMI

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United States: ISM manufacturing index reflects ongoing weakness in sector

November 2, 2015

In October, the ISM manufacturing index came in at 50.1%, which was just below the 50.2% recorded in September and marked the lowest reading since May 2013. The result was roughly in line with market expectations of 50.0%. The index has weakened for four consecutive months and is barely holding above the 50.0% threshold that distinguishes between expansion and contraction in the manufacturing sector.

The index was mainly dragged down by falling employment, which hit the lowest level since 2009. However, on a positive note, production and new orders were both up in October, which provides some hope that the manufacturing sector may rebound in the months ahead. Meanwhile, inventories diminished and supplier delivery times were broadly unchanged in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that industrial output will increase 1.5% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see industrial production accelerating to a 2.4% expansion, which is also down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Economist

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USA PMI October 2015

Note: Composite index in the Manufacturing Report on Business (PMI). Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50% point to a contraction.
Source: Institute for Supply Management.


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