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United Kingdom Unemployment September 2023

United Kingdom: Labor market loses steam in Q3, though wage growth outpaces inflation

According to the ONS, vacancy numbers declined in the three months to September for the 15th consecutive period, while employment decreased by 11,000 in September according to experimental data, the third straight month of contraction. More positively, wage growth in the three months to August outstripped inflation thanks to the sharp decline in the latter, supporting consumers’ purchasing power. It should be noted that unemployment figures were not published together with the aforementioned labor market data due to quality concerns.

Overall, these figures show that the labor market is softening, and our panelists see this trend continuing in the coming quarters, with the unemployment rate seen rising to around 4.5% next year.

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