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United Kingdom GDP April 2024

United Kingdom: Economy remains flat in April

GDP was flat month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in April (March: +0.4% mom), matching market expectations. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP rose at a quicker rate of 0.7% in February–April (January–March: +0.6% qoq), the best result since the three months up to May 2022.

In April, large falls in manufacturing and construction offset growth in services. Manufacturing was weighed on by the volatile pharmaceutical subsector and construction by poor weather, while services output was boosted by the information and communication subsector.

Our Consensus is for softer quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 compared to Q1, and the April GDP reading is in line with this prediction.

Commenting on forecast revisions in light of the April data, Goldman Sachs’ James Moberly said:

“We raise our Q2 tracking estimate to 0.4%qoq (from 0.3% previously). We raise our annual GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 0.9% (from 0.8% previously).”

UniCredit analysts commented:

“The fall in retail trade and construction output was likely in part due to particularly wet weather in April this year. We had expected GDP growth to be broadly flat in 2Q24 but the risks are now clearly skewed to the upside.”

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