Ukraine GDP Q4 2020


Ukraine: GDP contraction eases again in Q4 2020

February 15, 2021

A preliminary release revealed that GDP shrank 0.7% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2020, slightly beating market analysts’ expectations and moderating from Q3’s 3.5% drop. The downturn was also the softest out of four consecutive quarters of declining output. Although a comprehensive release is not yet available, the milder contraction in large part likely reflected recovering activity in the industrial and retail trade sectors.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, output rose 0.8% in Q4, easing markedly from the 8.5% surge logged in the previous quarter.

Commenting on the economic outlook for this year, Andrew Matheny and Tadas Gedminas, analysts at Goldman Sachs, highlighted:

“Looking further ahead, while the lockdown in January could pose a small near-term drag on growth, we continue to expect GDP to rebound sharply this year as a broader reopening of the economy takes place in Ukraine and elsewhere.”

FocusEconomics Consensus panelists project GDP to expand 4.7% in 2021, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2022.

Author:, Economist

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Ukraine GDP Chart

Ukraine GDP Q4  20 20

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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