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Turkey Inflation November 2019

Turkey: Inflation rises in November

Turkish consumer prices rose 0.38% month-on-month in November, notably below the prior month’s 2.00% increase and marking a five-month low. The softer rise in November was driven by weaker price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages; transportation; housing and utilities; and clothing and footwear.

On the other hand, inflation rose from 8.6% in October to 10.6% in November, ending a two-month streak of single-digit inflation. However, this was widely expected as inflation in September and October benefited from a supportive base effect owing to last year’s currency crisis. Commenting on what the latest data means for monetary policy, Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING Turkey, noted that the print “should encourage the bank to continue easing at the last rate setting meeting of the year.”

Lastly, core inflation, which excludes volatile price items such as energy and food, rose from 6.7% in October to 9.3% in November, while annual average inflation moderated from 16.8% to 15.9%.

The inflation outlook for next year remains clouded in upside risks owing to potential currency volatility as the government renewed its focus on lifting economic growth. Moreover, economic growth could be prioritized over bringing down inflation.

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