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Turkey Inflation May 2024

Turkey: Inflation increases in May

Inflation came in at 75.4% in May, up from April’s 69.8%. May’s figure marked the highest inflation rate since November 2022 and was slightly above market expectations. The reading was driven by faster increases in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and housing and utilities.

Accordingly, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 62.5% in May (April: 59.6%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 75.0% in May, from the previous month’s 75.8%.

Lastly, consumer prices increased 3.37% in May over the previous month, picking up from April’s 3.18% rise.

Our panelists see inflation around its peak and foresee a notable decline in H2 due to prior monetary tightening and a high base effect.

Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, commented on the outlook:

“Overall, annual inflation reached its cyclical peak in May with across-the-board price increases in both food and non-food groups, in addition to a one-off effect from the energy group. For the remainder of this year, annual inflation is expected to drop rapidly with the large base and is likely to be in the CBT’s forecast range (34-42%) at the end of 2024, but close to the upper band in our view.”

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