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Turkey Inflation November 2023

Turkey: Inflation ticks up in November

Inflation increased to 62.0% in November, above October’s 61.4%. November’s figure marked the highest inflation rate since December 2022. The uptick was largely due to faster increases in prices for housing and utilities and clothing. That said, price pressures for food and transporation softened.

The trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 53.4% in November (October: 54.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 69.9% in November, from the previous month’s 69.8%.

Finally, consumer prices increased 3.28% in November over the previous month, which was below October’s 3.43% rise. November’s result marked the lowest reading since May.

Our panelists project inflation to remain close to current levels in the coming quarters amid sustained lira weakness, and do not foresee a significant decline until H2 2024.

Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, commented on the outlook:

“We expect inflation to remain elevated until mid-2024, with further increases above 70% on seasonal effects in January and unfavourable base effects in May. The second half of next year will likely see a sharp downtrend—reflecting this year’s high base and further impact of tighter policy, pulling inflation to 40-45% by the end of the year.”

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