Turkey: Inflation rises to over one-year high in December
Inflation rose to 64.8% in December, following November’s 62.0%. December’s figure represented the highest inflation rate since November 2022. The acceleration was broad-based: Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport and housing increased at quicker rates in December.
The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 53.9% in December (November: 53.4%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 70.6% in December, from November’s 69.9%.
Finally, consumer prices rose 2.93% over the previous month in December, slowing down from the 3.28% rise seen in November. December’s result marked the lowest reading since May.
Our panelists see inflation hovering around current levels in H1; they do not pencil a significant slowdown until H2 2024.
Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, commented on the inflation outlook:
“We expect further increases in the near term, given the higher than-expected minimum wage hike and increases in administrative prices due to SCT and revaluation rate-related adjustments.[…] On the other hand, the second half of the year ahead will likely see a sharp downtrend—reflecting this year’s high base and further impact of tighter policy, pulling inflation to below 45% at year-end.”