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Turkey Inflation October 2023

Turkey: Inflation moderates marginally in October

Inflation came in at 61.4% in October, down from September’s 61.5%. The moderation was primarily driven by slower growth in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and for transportation. That said, prices for housing and utilities increased at a faster clip.

Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 54.3% in October (September: 55.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 69.8% in October, from September’s 68.9%.

Lastly, consumer prices rose 3.43% in October over the previous month, a smaller increase than the 4.75% rise recorded in September. October’s result marked the lowest reading since May.

Our panelists see inflation hovering around current levels in the coming quarters; they do not pencil a significant slowdown until H2 2024.

Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, commented:

“The pass-through effects from the post-election adjustment in FX, wages and taxes has been “largely completed” as indicated by the CBRT, but a deterioration in pricing behaviour, exchange rate-related risks, and likely pressure in oil prices due to geopolitical developments hint that inflation will likely remain elevated in the near term”.

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