Thailand Economic Outlook
October 15, 2019Available data suggests economic growth accelerated in the third quarter from the near five-year low in the second quarter, although the pace of expansion is likely to have remained relatively lackluster nonetheless. In the first two months of the quarter, exports registered no growth over a year ago on average. This was partly due to a continued appreciation of the Thai currency and this has fed through to the domestic economy. In the same time frame, the downturn in the goods-producing sector intensified, while agricultural output continued to fall—albeit at a softer pace—amid a lingering drought. Consequently, annual private consumption growth moderated in July–August, while business and consumer sentiment worsened; however, softening inflationary pressures in the quarter as a whole should have somewhat cushioned the slowdown in household consumption.
Thailand Economic GrowthWhile economic growth should accelerate next year, risks are tilted to the downside and chiefly stem from the external sector as well as a strong currency. The latter is seen weighing on exports and inbound tourism, translating into weaker domestic demand; fiscal expansion and monetary policy loosening should ease its moderation, however. Our panel expects the economy to expand 3.1% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 3.4% in 2021.
Thailand Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||30.56||0.17 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||1,659||-1.41 %||Sep 04|
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Thailand Economic News
October 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.10% month-on-month in September, contrasting the 0.19% decrease in August.
September 27, 2019
Manufacturing production fell 4.4% year-on-year in August, down from the revised 3.3% contraction in July (previously reported: -3.2% year-on-year).
September 25, 2019
At its 25 September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand unanimously opted to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.50%.
September 23, 2019
Exports contracted 4.0% year-on-year in August, swinging from a 4.3% increase in July and worse than the 2.0% fall expected by market analysts.
September 2, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.19% month-on-month in August, contrasting the 0.06% increase in July.