Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

Following a strong first quarter in which the economy grew at a multi-year high pace, second quarter data is also providing some good news, as domestic demand appeared firm in Q2 on the back of household spending. Growth in private consumption was elevated in April–May, while retail sales grew at a near double-digit pace in April. Private consumption is likely being buttressed by wage growth and improving consumer confidence, which reached its highest level in five years in June. Furthermore, manufacturing output expanded at a solid pace in April and May. On the downside, the PMI moderated in June on the back of a fall in new domestic and export orders, suggesting that growth momentum in the manufacturing sector eased in the same month.

Thailand Economic Growth

Economic growth should accelerate this year thanks to firming domestic demand—with government consumption expected to increase in the lead-up to elections currently set for next year—and a strong tourism sector. However, the external sector will likely soften on higher oil prices and a large export base effect. Downside risks include a possible escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as further monetary tightening in the U.S. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 4.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel projects growth of 3.8% in 2019.

Thailand Economy Data

Population (million)68.368.768.869.069.1
GDP per capita (USD)6,1725,9375,8195,9706,591
GDP (USD bn)422408401412455
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.0-
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.9-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.0-5.8-
Unemployment Rate0.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-2.9-2.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.242.543.740.741.8
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.70.6-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.21.9-
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.30.1-4.1-1.20.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)36.0-13.624.1-17.721.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.7632.9236.0435.7832.64
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)30.6832.4434.2135.2433.90
Current Account (% of GDP)-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.915.
Trade Balance (USD billion)
Exports (USD billion)228227214214235
Imports (USD billion)228210187178203
Exports (annual variation in %)0.3-0.6-
Imports (annual variation in %)0.3-8.1-11.0-4.814.2
International Reserves (USD)167157157172203
External Debt (% of GDP)33.734.832.732.132.7

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Thailand Facts

Bond Yield2.630.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate33.290.17 %Aug 15
Stock Market1,676-1.41 %Aug 15

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