Thailand Economic Outlook
May 26, 2020GDP contracted at the sharpest pace in over eight years in the first quarter, as the fallout from Covid-19 and the measures to curtail its spread hammered the economy. Capital spending sank largely due to a drop in construction activity, while exports fell on a collapse in service sales amid plummeting tourist arrivals in Q1. On the upside, resilient private consumption growth cushioned the downturn somewhat. Turning to the second quarter, GDP looks to be shrinking at an even faster rate. Record-low consumer and business sentiment in April suggest that social distancing and business closures dealt a heavy blow to economic activity. Moreover, the loss of trade privileges with the U.S. in April and plummeting tourist arrivals look set to hammer exports in Q2. Amid the collapse in air travel, the government approved a debt-restructuring plan for state-owned Thai Airways in 19 May.
Thailand Economic GrowthThe economy will likely shrink this year as the tourism, retail and manufacturing sectors all reel from the impact of Covid-19. Moreover, plummeting external demand should hammer exports, while heightened uncertainties restrain investment. Government fiscal stimulus and monetary policy action will soften the blow. Risks to the outlook center on the length of the pandemic. Our panel projects the economy to contract 5.4% in 2020, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month's projection, before growing 4.4% in 2021.
Thailand Economy Data
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Thailand Economic News
May 22, 2020
Thai merchandise exports growth moderated to 2.1% year-on-year in April, from March’s 4.2% increase, likely influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic depressing globe trade and economic activity.
May 20, 2020
At its 20 May meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) slashed the policy rate by 25 basis points to a fresh record low of 0.50%.
May 18, 2020
Activity swung to contraction in the first quarter, with GDP decreasing 1.8% on an annual basis (Q4 2019: +1.5% year-on-year).
May 4, 2020
Consumer prices fell 2.03% month-on-month in April, down from March’s 0.86% drop, on the back of notably lower prices for transport; housing and furnishing; and electricity, fuel and water supply.
April 29, 2020
Manufacturing output fell 11.3% year-on-year in March, down from the 5.2% contraction in the prior month and marking the 11th consecutive month of shrinking production.