Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

January 25, 2022

After the economy slipped back into contraction in Q3, conditions should have improved slightly in Q4. Household spending fell at a much reduced pace in October–November compared with Q3. Continued strong growth in goods imports also pointed to resilient domestic demand. Moreover, manufacturing production growth accelerated in the first two months of Q4, while the manufacturing PMI averaged above its Q3 level in the quarter overall, despite dropping slightly into contractionary territory in December. Turning to the new year, daily Covid-19 cases have started to rise again with the arrival of Omicron variant, although levels remain far below the records seen in July–August 2021. As such, authorities will reactivate the quarantine-free travel scheme in early February, after having temporarily paused it during January, boding well for the tourism industry at the outset of 2022.

Thailand Economic Growth

Economic growth is seen rising this year from 2021’s relatively mild projected rebound, as consumer spending picks up and external sector growth remains solid. However, more limited fiscal support and uncertainty around how quickly the key tourism industry will recover mean that growth should still lag behind the majority of regional heavyweights in 2022. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.4% in 2023.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.13.44.14.22.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.62.93.14.64.5
Investment (annual variation in %)4.42.91.83.82.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)0.01.41.83.7-3.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.06.310.83.1
Unemployment Rate0.70.81.00.91.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)5.74.89.42.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.91.10.80.40.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.90.20.71.10.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-1.20.70.4-1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.59.65.67.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.90.19.57.5-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-5.113.213.7-5.4
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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