Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

GDP growth accelerated in annual terms in the first quarter, supported by recovering tourist numbers due to the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions. Activity is seemingly continuing to expand at a healthy rate in the second quarter. In April, annual private consumption growth strengthened from the previous month. Moreover, in April-May the manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory, while the Central Bank stated that economic activity improved in May amid receding concerns about the pandemic and easing restrictions. That said, in April the current account registered the widest deficit in nine years due to a notable slowdown in export growth, likely prompted by China’s lockdowns. Meanwhile, parliament passed the first reading of the USD 93 billion draft budget for 2023, which plans for a USD 20 billion deficit and an expansionary fiscal stance to support the post-Covid-19 economic recovery.

Thailand Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a faster pace this year, as the further easing of Covid-19 restrictions and the reopening of borders boost the important tourism industry and consumer spending. The latter will also benefit from accumulated savings and a supportive fiscal stance. High commodity prices and China’s Covid-19 policy pose downside risks to the outlook. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 3.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projections, before growing 4.3% in 2023.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.13.44.14.22.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.62.93.14.64.5
Investment (annual variation in %)4.42.91.83.82.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)0.01.41.83.7-3.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.06.310.83.1
Unemployment Rate0.70.81.00.91.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)5.74.89.42.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.91.10.80.40.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.90.20.71.10.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-1.20.70.4-1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.59.65.67.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.90.19.57.5-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-5.113.213.7-5.4
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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