Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

October 20, 2020

The economic panorama remained muted in Q3, following the heavy pandemic-induced contraction clocked in Q2. Private consumption fell in monthly terms in August, after growth slowed in July from May–June’s rebound. Furthermore, manufacturing output growth slowed in August, while the PMI for the sector remained in contractionary territory throughout July–September. More positively, however, exports boosted higher in July–August compared with the Q2 average, indicating firming external dynamics. In political news, the prime minister declared a state of emergency on 15 October in an attempt to crack down on burgeoning pro-democracy protests. Regardless, crowds have ignored the ban and continued their calls for constitutional reform and greater democratic freedoms. Amid the turmoil, the government’s FY 2021 mildly expansionary budget was approved by the Senate on 21 September.

Thailand Economic Growth

GDP is projected to rebound strongly in 2021, having contracted sharply in 2020. Continued government spending, a recovery in private consumption and firming fixed investment should bolster domestic demand, while improving external dynamics should support exports. The prolonged nature of the pandemic and its impact on the tourism sector remains a key risk. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.3% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.3% again in 2022.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.13.44.14.22.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.62.93.14.64.5
Investment (annual variation in %)4.42.91.83.82.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)0.01.41.83.7-3.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.06.310.83.1
Unemployment Rate0.70.81.00.91.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)5.74.89.42.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.91.10.80.40.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.90.20.71.10.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-1.20.70.4-1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.59.65.67.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.90.19.57.5-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-5.113.213.7-5.4
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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