Thailand Economic Outlook
March 19, 2019
The country is gearing up for elections scheduled for 24 March, which the current military junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha is expected to win. On the economic front, domestic demand fueled the acceleration in economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year and early data on the domestic economy in Q1 2019 remains fairly positive. Private consumption and private sector investments grew robustly in January, with the former reaping the fruits of low unemployment and moderate inflation. However, manufacturing operating conditions and business sentiment worsened in February. On the external front, Thailand recorded its largest trade deficit in January since April 2013 on a surge in imports and a drop in exports. The latter was weighed down by an appreciating currency and trade tensions dragging on demand from China and Europe.Thailand Economic Growth
Economic growth should moderate somewhat this year despite strong fixed investment and public expenditure. Downside risks remain present in the Sino-American trade conflict, which could spill over and drag on Thailand’s exports, while domestic tensions could rise in the aftermath of the general election. Our panel expects the economy to expand 3.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% again in 2020.Thailand Economy Data
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Thailand Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.52 | 0.0 % | Mar 20 |
| Exchange Rate | 31.66 | 0.17 % | Mar 20 |
| Stock Market | 1,628 | -1.41 % | Mar 20 |
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Thailand Economic News
Thailand: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha expected to hold on to power in first election since 2014
March 18, 2019
Thailand is scheduled to hold a general election on 24 March and the military is likely to maintain significant influence over politics following the vote.
Thailand: Inflation jumps in February
March 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.24% in February over the previous month (January: -0.02% month-on-month) on higher prices for transportation and communication; non-food and beverages; and raw food and energy, while prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a softer pace in February compared to January. Inflation more than doubled from 0.3% in January to 0.7% in February, but remained below the Bank of Thailand’s 1.0%–4.0% target range.
Thailand: Growth in manufacturing output eases markedly in January
February 28, 2019
Manufacturing output grew a meager 0.2% year-on-year in January, down from a revised 1.2% expansion in December (previously reported: +0.8% year-on-year).
Thailand: Trade balance swings into red in January
February 21, 2019
The external sector got off to a false start in the new year, with the trade balance swinging from a USD 1.1 billion surplus in December to a USD 4.0 billion deficit in January.
Thailand: Economic growth picks up steam in the final quarter of 2018
February 18, 2019
The Thai economy shifted into a higher gear in the fourth quarter of last year.
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