Thailand Economic Outlook
October 19, 2021The economy appears likely to have slipped back into contraction in Q3, as available data paints a picture of deteriorating activity throughout the period. Private consumption contracted sharply through July–August, while private investment growth moderated in the same period. Meanwhile, despite a pickup in September, the manufacturing PMI averaged lower in Q3 than in the prior quarter as subdued demand and output ensured the index remained in contractionary territory through the period. Turning to Q4, although daily Covid-19 cases remain elevated, authorities have moved ahead with plans to restart the tourism industry, halving the mandatory quarantine for fully vaccinated visitors to seven days with a view to removing all isolation measures for ten key provinces at the start of November. This, combined with a steady improvement in vaccination rates, bodes well for activity in the quarter.
Thailand Economic GrowthGrowth in 2022 is set to accelerate from this year’s heavily-downgraded projected level, as consumer spending accelerates on pent-up demand and external sector growth remains robust. However, concerns regarding the speed at which the key tourism industry will recover mean that growth is still set to lag behind the majority of regional heavyweights in the coming year. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.1% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.5% in 2023.
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Thailand Economic News
October 5, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.59% in September over the previous month, swinging from August's 0.18% fall.
September 29, 2021
At its 29 September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) held the policy rate at the record low of 0.50% for the tenth consecutive meeting.
September 28, 2021
Manufacturing output slid 3.5% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in August, which was a smaller drop than July's 6.0% decrease.
September 24, 2021
Merchandise exports rose 8.9% annually in August, slowing notably from July’s 20.3% growth.
August 27, 2021
Manufacturing output dived 5.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in July, which was a deterioration from June's 0.3% decrease.