Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

The economy appears likely to have slipped back into contraction in Q3, as available data paints a picture of deteriorating activity throughout the period. Private consumption contracted sharply through July–August, while private investment growth moderated in the same period. Meanwhile, despite a pickup in September, the manufacturing PMI averaged lower in Q3 than in the prior quarter as subdued demand and output ensured the index remained in contractionary territory through the period. Turning to Q4, although daily Covid-19 cases remain elevated, authorities have moved ahead with plans to restart the tourism industry, halving the mandatory quarantine for fully vaccinated visitors to seven days with a view to removing all isolation measures for ten key provinces at the start of November. This, combined with a steady improvement in vaccination rates, bodes well for activity in the quarter.

Thailand Economic Growth

Growth in 2022 is set to accelerate from this year’s heavily-downgraded projected level, as consumer spending accelerates on pent-up demand and external sector growth remains robust. However, concerns regarding the speed at which the key tourism industry will recover mean that growth is still set to lag behind the majority of regional heavyweights in the coming year. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.1% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.5% in 2023.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.13.44.14.22.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.62.93.14.64.5
Investment (annual variation in %)4.42.91.83.82.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)0.01.41.83.7-3.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.06.310.83.1
Unemployment Rate0.70.81.00.91.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)5.74.89.42.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.91.10.80.40.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.90.20.71.10.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-1.20.70.4-1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.59.65.67.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.90.19.57.5-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-5.113.213.7-5.4
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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