Thailand Economic Outlook
July 21, 2020The economy is set to enter recession in the second quarter, after GDP contracted for the first time in six years in the first quarter. Private consumption nosedived in April–May amid tumbling retail sales and deeply pessimistic consumer confidence, while imports shrank markedly in the same period, reflecting lower domestic demand. Manufacturing output continued to collapse in May, with motor vehicle production down 70% on the same month a year ago. Consequently, exports contracted at the fastest pace in over a decade as external demand receded due to the global pandemic. However, the panorama appears to be improving at the end of the second quarter and into the third as lockdown conditions continue to be lifted. June’s PMI indicated a softening in the manufacturing sector downturn; business and consumer confidence rose in the same month, above the lows set in April; and high frequency data indicated an uptick in activity in early July.
Thailand Economic GrowthThis year the economy is projected to contract sharply as the pandemic suppresses household spending and heightened uncertainty hits fixed investment. Exports are expected to be hit hard from subdued external demand, while the prolonged nature of the viral outbreak amid stubbornly high global infection rates is a key risk to the outlook. Our panel projects the economy to contract 6.3% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection, before growing 4.6% in 2021.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Thailand Economic News
August 6, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.66% in July over the previous month, slowing from June's 1.56% rise.
August 5, 2020
At its 5 August meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to hold the policy rate at a record low of 0.50%, having cut the rate by 75 basis points since the start of the year.
July 29, 2020
On an annual basis, manufacturing output’s fall decelerated to 17.7% in June (May: -23.8% yoy).
July 23, 2020
Merchandise exports dived 23.2% over the same month last year in June (May: -22.5% year-on-year).
July 4, 2020
Consumer prices increased 1.56% in June over the previous month, accelerating from May's 0.01% rise.