Thailand Economic Outlook
February 25, 2020
The economy weakened, with GDP growing at the softest pace in over five years in the final quarter of last year on a contraction in domestic demand as government expenditure fell, likely owing to the delayed passage of the government’s budget. Furthermore, exports of goods and services fell notably in the quarter amid a stronger downturn in the manufacturing sector, while the agricultural sector contracted at the steepest rate in eight quarters. Turning to this year, economic data remains limited but the manufacturing sector’s PMI dipped back into contractionary territory, suggesting business conditions worsened from the prior month. In mid-February, however, Parliament finally voted in favor of the government’s 2020 budget. Coupled with recently announced tax breaks and soft loans, this should buttress domestic demand and alleviate the damage inflicted by the coronavirus.Thailand Economic Growth
Economic growth is expected remain broadly stable on the back of fiscal stimulus, low interest rates and a recovery of the external sector. However, the balance of risks is skewed to the downside amid lingering external headwinds, with protracted Sino-American tensions, the novel coronavirus outbreak and a strong currency likely weighing on exports and tourism. Our panel projects the economy to expand 2.3% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 3.3% in 2021.Thailand Economy Data
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Thailand Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 30.11 | 0.17 % | Dec 30 |
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Thailand Economic News
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Thailand: Inflation returns to the target range in January
February 17, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.16% month-on-month in January, up from December’s 0.01% rise.
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Thailand: Economic growth slumps to over five-year low in Q4
February 17, 2020
The economy grew at a five-year low of 1.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, below market expectations of 2.1%, as U.S.-China trade tensions, soft domestic demand, a delayed government budget and drought all took their toll.
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Thailand: Bank of Thailand lowers policy rate as coronavirus outbreak clouds the outlook
February 5, 2020
On 5 February, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 1.00% from 1.25%.
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Thailand: Manufacturing output drops for eighth-consecutive month in December
January 28, 2020
Thai manufacturing output fell 4.4% year-on-year in December, up from the 8.3% contraction recorded in November but marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction.
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Thailand: Fall in exports moderates in December
January 23, 2020
Thai exports contracted again in December, falling 1.3% year-on-year (November: -7.4% year-on-year).
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