Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economy looks likely to have contracted at a slower pace in Q3 than in Q2, as the easing of coronavirus-induced lockdowns should have supported an uptick in domestic activity. However, ongoing travel restrictions affecting the all-important tourism sector, supply chain disruptions and weak foreign demand are likely to have weighed heavily on the external sector. Turning to Q4, the panorama remains subdued: Business sentiment turned more pessimistic in October, and while the PMI signaled a marginal expansion in manufacturing conditions in the same month, firms reported a decline in exports, reflecting a still-weak external trading environment. In the political arena, protestors calling for the resignation of the prime minister rejected a parliament-initiated reconciliation plan on 4 November and are planning fresh rallies in coming weeks, in a continuation of unrest that is likely to dampen domestic demand in Q4.

Thailand Economic Growth

The economy is projected to recover in 2021, after contracting sharply in 2020. Domestic demand is set to rebound strongly on improving household and capital spending. The recovery in activity in key external markets should buoy exports, although the prolonged nature of the pandemic and its impact on the tourism sector remains a key downside risk. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.4% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.4% again in 2022.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.13.44.14.22.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.62.93.14.64.5
Investment (annual variation in %)4.42.91.83.82.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)0.01.41.83.7-3.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.06.310.83.1
Unemployment Rate0.70.81.00.91.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)5.74.89.42.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.91.10.80.40.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.90.20.71.10.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-1.20.70.4-1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.59.65.67.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.90.19.57.5-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-5.113.213.7-5.4
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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