Thailand Economic Outlook
October 20, 2020The economic panorama remained muted in Q3, following the heavy pandemic-induced contraction clocked in Q2. Private consumption fell in monthly terms in August, after growth slowed in July from May–June’s rebound. Furthermore, manufacturing output growth slowed in August, while the PMI for the sector remained in contractionary territory throughout July–September. More positively, however, exports boosted higher in July–August compared with the Q2 average, indicating firming external dynamics. In political news, the prime minister declared a state of emergency on 15 October in an attempt to crack down on burgeoning pro-democracy protests. Regardless, crowds have ignored the ban and continued their calls for constitutional reform and greater democratic freedoms. Amid the turmoil, the government’s FY 2021 mildly expansionary budget was approved by the Senate on 21 September.
Thailand Economic GrowthGDP is projected to rebound strongly in 2021, having contracted sharply in 2020. Continued government spending, a recovery in private consumption and firming fixed investment should bolster domestic demand, while improving external dynamics should support exports. The prolonged nature of the pandemic and its impact on the tourism sector remains a key risk. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.3% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.3% again in 2022.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Thailand Economic News
October 5, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.11% in September over the previous month, swinging from August's 0.29% increase.
September 30, 2020
Manufacturing production grew 3.3% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in August (July: +6.3% mom).
September 24, 2020
Merchandise exports shrank 7.9% year-on-year in August (July: -11.4% year-on-year).
September 23, 2020
At its 23 September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) held the policy rate at a record low of 0.50%, having cut the rate by 75 basis points since the start of the year.
September 21, 2020
On 21 September, the Senate approved the government’s national budget bill for fiscal year 2021 (October 2021–September 2022).