Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The military junta announced that elections will be held in November of next year, against a backdrop of a robustly growing economy supported by the external sector and tourism. The domestic economy also continues to show signs of recovery. Tourist arrivals were up markedly in the first eight months of the year on an annual basis, and robust external demand boosted exports throughout Q3. Indicators suggest that the improvement in the external sector is spilling over to the domestic economy. Manufacturing output and private investment logged their third consecutive monthly annual growth rates in September, although the latter’s pace of expansion remains fragile. Business sentiment dropped markedly in October; however, it remains in positive territory. Moreover, private consumption increased throughout Q3. Consumer confidence climbed for the third consecutive month in October, boding well for private consumption going forward.

Thailand Economic Growth

Large public investments and solid foreign demand are expected to buttress the economy next year and in 2019. Growth is, however, expected to moderate as external demand slows; the external sector has benefitted from a notable base effect. Private consumption is showing signs of revival, but remains lackluster, as households are suffering from high levels of indebtedness. Furthermore, the upcoming election cycle could dent economic activity and confidence levels. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 3.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel projects 3.4% growth in 2019.

Thailand Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)68.068.368.768.869.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,8456,1755,9255,7885,907
GDP (USD bn)397422407398407
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.22.70.92.93.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.70.90.92.23.1
Investment (annual variation in %)10.7-1.0-2.24.42.8
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)10.62.3-3.8-  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)19.0-0.3-6.00.13.0
Unemployment Rate0.50.60.60.70.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-2.2-2.0-2.4-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.242.242.643.941.2
Money (annual variation in %)13.03.91.35.74.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.61.70.6-0.91.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.02.21.9-0.90.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.00.30.1-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.752.252.001.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)12.436.0-13.624.1-17.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)30.5832.7632.9236.0435.78
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)31.0430.6832.4434.2135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.4-1.23.78.111.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-4.915.132.147.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.10.217.226.836.6
Exports (USD billion)228228227214214
Imports (USD billion)227228210187178
Exports (annual variation in %)2.50.3-0.6-5.90.4
Imports (annual variation in %)8.40.3-8.1-11.0-4.8
International Reserves (USD)182167157157172
External Debt (% of GDP)32.933.734.833.032.2

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Thailand Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.370.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate32.570.17 %Dec 06
Stock Market1,694-1.41 %Dec 06

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