Thailand Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018After economic growth remained robust despite easing in the second quarter, the latest data suggests that momentum has moderated somewhat in the third quarter but remained healthy. In August, the manufacturing PMI continued to ease and dipped into contractionary territory, while business sentiment softened despite staying broadly optimistic. In addition, in July the tourism sector lost some steam due to a recent tour boat accident, while the trade sector recorded a small deficit. On the other hand, manufacturing growth was robust in the same month while private consumption expanded, likely thanks to rising consumer confidence, favorable farm and non-farm incomes and solid private credit growth. In the political arena, the government is moving closer to holding general elections next year, after two bills were approved in mid-September which suggest an election will be held by May 2019 at the latest.
Thailand Economic GrowthSofter external demand growth and rising trade war fears should result in a deceleration of economic growth in the second half of the year. Next year, a further moderation in export growth is expected on the back of heightened trade tensions. Nonetheless, the domestic economy should benefit from robust tourist arrivals, government infrastructure investment and strong private consumption. The panel projects the economy to grow 4.3% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.71||0.0 %||Sep 20|
|Exchange Rate||32.33||0.17 %||Sep 20|
|Stock Market||1,752||-1.41 %||Sep 20|
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Thailand Economic News
September 19, 2018
At its 19 September Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the Bank of Thailand opted to maintain the one-day repurchase rate at 1.50%, where it been for over three years.
September 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.26% over the previous month in August, contrasting July’s 0.05% decrease.
August 30, 2018
Manufacturing output growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in July from June’s upwardly revised 5.0% (previously reported: +4.7% year-on-year) but nevertheless beat market expectations of a stronger moderation to 4.2%.
August 23, 2018
Thailand’s external sector recorded a trade deficit of USD 525 million in July, sharply contrasting June’s USD 1.6 billion surplus.
August 20, 2018
The pace of expansion in the Thai economy slowed somewhat in the second quarter, following the multi-year high increase in the previous quarter.