Thailand Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
Economic growth decelerated in the third quarter on a weakening external sector after exports were hit by spillovers from the U.S.-China trade spat. Domestic demand, however, remained resilient in the quarter, with private consumption growing at the fastest pace in nearly two years amid improving wage growth and subdued inflation. Data on the fourth quarter is somewhat mixed. The external sector started off on the wrong foot, recording a small deficit in October as merchandise import growth outpaced export growth. In addition, the manufacturing PMI remained below the critical 50-point mark through November, indicating a deterioration in operating conditions in the sector. In more positive news, private consumption expanded robustly in October, while private investment growth accelerated to a near six-year high in the same month.Thailand Economic Growth
Thailand’s economy is expected to continue growing at a solid, albeit more moderate, clip next year, powered by growing government consumption and fixed investment. However, softening contributions from the external sector and private consumption will likely weigh on growth. Looking ahead, although a continuation of the recent ceasefire in the Sino-American trade dispute would reduce downside risks to the external sector, possible tensions in the lead-up to general elections pose a threat. Our panel projects economic growth of 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.Thailand Economy Data
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Thailand Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.49 | 0.0 % | Jan 16 |
| Exchange Rate | 31.78 | 0.17 % | Jan 16 |
| Stock Market | 1,577 | -1.41 % | Jan 16 |
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Thailand Economic News
Thailand: Inflation moderates sharply in December
January 7, 2019
Consumer prices dropped 0.65% over the previous month in December, a sharper drop than November’s 0.22% decrease.
Thailand: Growth in manufacturing output eases markedly in November
December 28, 2018
Manufacturing production moderated strongly to a 1.0% year-on-year expansion in November from an upwardly revised 5.8% increase in October (previously reported: +4.1% year-on-year) and came in below market expectations.
Thailand: Trade deficit widens in November
December 28, 2018
Thailand recorded a USD 1.2 billion trade deficit in November, a bigger shortfall than October’s USD 280 million deficit.
Thailand: Bank of Thailand raises rates for the first time in seven years in December
December 19, 2018
Following the increasing hawkishness of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand since August, the committee raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% from 1.50% at its meeting on 19 December.
Thailand: Inflation drops below Central Bank target range in November
December 3, 2018
Consumer prices dropped 0.22% over the previous month in November, contrasting the 0.06% price increase in October.
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