The skyline in Sweden

Sweden Monetary Policy June 2024

Sweden: Riksbank holds fire in June

At its meeting on 26 June, the Riksbank paused its loosening cycle and kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. The hold, which came on the heels of the first interest cut in eight years in May, had been priced in by markets.

The key domestic factors influencing the Riksbank’s hold included the fact that inflation with a fixed interest rate (CPIF), which has continued to fall and is now close to the 2.0% target—in line with the Bank’s projections. Moreover, core inflation has largely eased more than anticipated in recent months. These factors, along with moderate wage increases and inflation expectations, suggest that the economic conditions for the Bank to reach its inflation target in the medium term are promising.

The Riksbank provided a more dovish forward guidance, saying that if inflation prospects do not change, it may cut the policy rate by two or three times in H2—instead of twice as cited in its May meeting. However, the Bank also notes that the prospects for inflation and economic activity remain uncertain. The next meeting is scheduled for 19 August, with the decision to be announced the following day. Roughly half of our panelists see three 25 basis point reductions in H2, with most of the rest expecting two such cuts.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest