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Sweden Inflation May 2024

Sweden: CPIF remains stable in May

Consumer price inflation with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) came in at 2.3% in May, unchanged from April’s figure. Looking at the details of the release, the impact of slower growth in prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels offset the impact of stronger increases in prices for food and transport.

The trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 3.6% in May (April: 4.0%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation edged down to 3.7% in May from April’s 3.9%.

Finally, consumer prices with a fixed interest rate rose 0.16% in May over the previous month, moderating from April’s 0.26% increase.

Meanwhile, core inflation inched up to 3.0% in May from April’s 2.9%. May’s uptick represented the first increase since gradually declining since its 9.3% peak in February 2023. The acceleration overshot both market and the Riksbank projections and was partly the result of Taylor Swift’s tour and the Eurovision song contest inflating prices for accommodation and restaurants.

Our panelists expect CPIF to wane from current levels in June. In H2, CPIF should cool and fall to just below the Riksbank’s 2.0% target by Q4. Overall in 2024, inflation will roughly be a third of 2023’s level and hover around the Riksbank’s target. That said, stronger-than-anticipated house prices and private consumption are upside risks.

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