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Sweden Inflation October 2023

Sweden: CPIF rises less than anticipated in October

Consumer price inflation with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) came in at 4.2% in October, which was up from September’s 4.0%. While October’s print was more than double the Riksbank’s 2.0% inflation target, it came in slightly below market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, the acceleration was due to prices for housing and utilities rising at a faster rate in October, more than offsetting prices for transportation and for recreation and culture, which increased at a more moderate pace.

Nevertheless, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 7.1% in October (September: 7.6%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation was unchanged at September’s 6.5% in October.

Finally, consumer prices with a fixed interest rate increased 0.07% in October over the previous month, coming in below September’s 0.39% rise.

Despite an underwhelming economic performance in the third quarter, the Riksbank might still hike rates again when it convenes next on 22 November—with the decision to be announced the following day—in light of October’s inflation data. Moreover, the weak krona will likely further support another hike in November. Nevertheless, October’s inflation print slightly undershot expectations, which could underpin a hold in the last scheduled monetary policy meeting of 2023.

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