Poland: Economic growth strengthens in Q3
According to a flash release, the economy grew 0.5% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which was an improvement from the second quarter’s 0.3% decrease.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth accelerated, rising to 1.4% in Q3 from the previous quarter’s 0.3% increase. A detailed breakdown will be released on 30 November.
Looking ahead, the economy should accelerate in 2024 from this year. Easing inflation and interest rates and a rebound in industrial output spurred by Germany’s recovery will underpin activity. The increased likelihood of an agreement on the disbursement of EU funds following October’s election is an upside risk. Additional spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war is a downside risk.
Commenting on the outlook, analysts at ING stated:
“Based on the available data, we estimate that the third quarter of 2023 brought a noticeably shallower decline in private consumption than in the first half of the year. Investment continued to grow solidly (the biggest positive surprise in the 2023 GDP data), concentrated in large companies. The change in inventories probably had a less negative impact on the annual GDP growth rate than in previous quarters.”