Singapore: Non-oil domestic exports decrease at a sharper rate in April
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 9.8% over the same month last year in April (March: -8.3% year on year). The decline was driven by lower exports to China, Malaysia and Taiwan. That said, exports to the U.S., the EU and South Korea increased. In seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms, NODX exports rose 2.7% in April, following March’s 18.4% increase.
Looking ahead, slower trade growth and a weaker global economy will continue to weigh on external demand. Moreover, a lackluster rebound of the Chinese economy amid its reopening is unlikely to provide major support to Singapore’s exports, absent renewed interventions from the Chinese government.
On the outlook, analysts at Nomura commented:
“We continue to forecast a slowing of GDP growth […] driven by further weakness in external demand. While our tech analysts do not expect the electronics downcycle to bottom out until H2 2023, our US economics team also expects a recession in the US starting in Q3 […]. In addition, the recovery in China since its reopening appears to be losing momentum and suggests NODX to China will likely remain weak […].”