Saudi Arabia: Saudi crude output remains weak in September, pushing up Brent prices
Brent prices averaged USD 92.0 per barrel in September, up 8.2% from August’s price and 1.9% higher year on year. Meanwhile, on 29 September, Brent traded at USD 92.1 per barrel, 6.1% higher month on month. The rally was driven by lower global supply prospects amid persistent output cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output rose to 9.01 mbpd (million barrels per day), only slightly above August’s over-decade low of 8.92 mbpd.
Our panelists see Saudi Arabia’s oil production in 2023 below last year’s levels and the 10-year average of 9.86 mbpd. The decline will be down to two factors. The first is the 1.00 mbpd voluntary production cut in place from July until the end of the year. Second are the production cuts agreed earlier with OPEC+. These production cuts agreed with OPEC are due to last until the end of next year, meaning Saudi Arabia’s crude output will remain below its 2022 level in 2024 despite exceeding the 10-year average slightly.