Russia: Inflation drops to lowest level since February 2020 in April
Inflation came in at 2.3% in April, down from March’s 3.5%. April’s reading marked the weakest inflation rate since February 2020. The broad-based downturn that saw inflation slip further the Central Bank’s target of 4.00% target was chiefly due to a base effect as it began to include the initial economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 11.6% in April (March: 12.9%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 2.0% in April, from the previous month’s 3.7%.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.38% in April over the previous month, picking up from the 0.37% increase logged in March.
Inflation is forecast to pick up notably in the second half of the year. Easing base effect, a tight labor market, a weak ruble, strong consumer demand and volatile external environment will all drive inflation higher in H2.