Russia: Industrial output dips in January
Industrial output slid 2.5% in year-on-year terms in January, which contrasted December’s 2.1% increase. January’s downturn was largely driven by a deterioration in manufacturing output. Moreover, mining and quarrying output continued to fall at a sharp pace. Notably, the result was affected by an adverse calendar affect and is likely to be revised ahead given the low reliability of the first estimate.
On a monthly basis, industrial production dropped 3.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, contrasting December’s 4.0% expansion and marking the worst result since April 2020. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 3.0% in January, down from December’s minus 2.6%.
Commenting on outlook for 2021, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, said:
“Looking through the statistical noise which materially lowers the accuracy of near-term data predictions, we remain cautiously positive on the industrial trend this year, supported by the easing in OPEC+ restrictions and generally positive performance in consumer-focused manufacturing so far […] Meanwhile, following a shallow 2.6% drop in industrial production in 2020, a recovery in 2021 beyond base effect will be a challenge”.