Russia

Russia GDP Q3 2021

Russia: GDP growth moderates in the third quarter

GDP growth moderated to 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, from 10.5% in the second quarter. The result came in line with the preliminary estimate and partly reflected wanning base effect that flattered Q2 reading. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 0.8% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter’s 3.2% growth. Q3’s reading marked the largest contraction since Q2 2020.

The slowdown came on the back of weaker domestic demand. Private consumption increased 10.3% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 28.1% expansion. Moreover, government spending recorded zero growth in Q3 (Q2: +1.0% yoy), while fixed investment growth moderated to 7.7% in the third quarter, from 12.8% logged in the previous quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 7.4% year-on-year in the third quarter (Q2: -2.7% yoy). Meanwhile, growth in imports of goods and services slowed to 18.8% in Q3 (Q2: +31.9% yoy).

Commenting on the GDP outlook for Q4 2021 and for 2022, Artem Zaigrin, chief economist at SOVA Capital, said:

“November GDP was up 5.2% yoy after 4.8% yoy in October vs. 4.3% YoY in 3Q21. […] The worsened epidemiological situation brought fewer drags to the economic performance than expected. We see more upside risks to the GDP being above our 4.5% yoy forecast this year. Going forward, the labor market constraints and persisting bottlenecks in the global supply chains might bring the economy to an overheated state and weaken the growth momentum. We expect GDP growth to slow to 2.7% yoy.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest