Poland: Manufacturing sector contracts again in January

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, recovered somewhat in January (January: 48.2 points) from its December 2018 low (December: 47.6 points). The index has fallen precipitously since mid-2018, and in November 2018 first landed below the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector.

January’s reading reflected the fastest decline in output in nearly a decade as export orders fell in light of the ongoing European slowdown, which pushed up inventories. Meanwhile, firms’ optimism continued to rebound on improving expectations for short-term output which, in turn, helped lift employment levels.

Poland Fixed Investment Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 6.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees fixed investment expanding 4.4%.