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Poland Monetary Policy October 2023

Poland: Central Bank slows the pace of monetary easing in October

At its 3–4 October meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut the key reference rate to 5.75% from 6.00%, following a larger-than-expected 75 basis point cut in September. The NBP also cut all of its other rates by 25 basis points, taking the Lombard rate to 6.25%, the discount rate to 5.85%, the rediscount rate to 5.80% and the deposit rate to 5.25%.

The NBP decided to ease its monetary policy stance further due to moderating inflation and weak economic activity. On the price front, lower commodity prices, easing supply chain disruptions, weaker domestic activity and previous interest rate increases continued to support a disinflationary trend: Inflation fell to 8.2% in September (August: 10.1%). Moreover, producer price inflation contracted at a sharper pace in year-on-year terms in August, which, coupled with falling inflation expectations, should lead to a further decline in consumer price inflation ahead. Meanwhile, the NBP stressed that economic conditions had deteriorated both globally and domestically, which has translated into softer demand pressure on prices.

In its communiqué, the NBP reiterated its commitment to base upcoming decisions on incoming data on inflation and economic activity, while remaining ready to “take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability,” including intervention in the foreign exchange market. Our panelists are currently reassessing their forecasts.

The next monetary policy decision will be taken on 7–8 November.

Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak, economists at ING, commented on the NBP’s decision: “In our view, the MPC decided to slow the pace of monetary easing (to 25 basis points from 75 basis points in September) to prevent further weakening of the zloty. Following today’s Council decision, the PLN gained temporarily, as some investors expected a more decisive cut.”

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