Poland: Inflation declines to lowest level since February 2022 in July
Inflation came in at 10.8% in July, down from June’s 11.5%. July’s reading marked the weakest inflation rate since February 2022. The decrease was primarily driven by a slower rise in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels moderated.
Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 15.5% in July (June: 15.9%).
Finally, consumer prices dropped 0.20% over the previous month in July, which was below June’s flat result. July’s month-on-month reading marked the weakest reading since February 2022.
Commenting on the release, Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING, stated:
“According to our current assumptions, CPI inflation could be close to 10% year-on-year in August, but it’s unlikely to be lower. […] Single-digit inflation (or the certainty that it will be achieved soon) is a condition for the [National Bank of Poland (NBP)] President to cut rates. Even if August’s inflation rate were still in double digits (around 10% yoy), we believe that the NBP will decide to cut rates as early as September.”