Poland GDP Q3 2019

Poland

Poland: Growth eases to near three-year low in Q3 but remains upbeat nonetheless

November 14, 2019

The economy grew 3.9% year-on-year (yoy) in the third quarter, marking the weakest expansion since Q4 2016, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (GUS) on 14 November. The outturn matched FocusEconomics analysts’ expectations and came in below the 4.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in Q2. Ahead of comprehensive third-quarter national accounts on 29 November, it appears faltering industrial production and business sentiment most likely restrained investment activity, while household spending, supported by a record-low unemployment rate and as evidenced by resilient retail sales growth in the quarter, powered the still-healthy showing.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth accelerated to 1.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms from Q2’s 0.8% expansion.

Commenting on the performance of the Polish economy going ahead, Rafal Benecki, Chied Economist at ING, stated:

“We do not expect a stronger deceleration in the current quarter or first quarter of 2020. […] A moderation should occur next year […] given the lower contribution from both investments and consumption. Overall, the GDP data shows the economy is off its peak, though it should return to potential next year.”

The economy will shift into a lower gear in 2020, weighed on by the challenging external backdrop, lower government investment growth, a less buoyant construction sector and as intensifying supply-side constraints restrain domestic demand. That said, robust consumer spending will continue to power the economy despite softening somewhat on fewer job gains.

FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2021.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Poland GDP Q3 2019

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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