Poland Business Confidence July 2019


Poland: Business sentiment at 19-month low in July

July 24, 2019

Manufacturing-sector business confidence lost further ground in July, according to the business tendency indicators released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). July’s business climate indicator dropped to 4.1 from 5.2 in June, the weakest reading since December 2017. Although business confidence has deteriorated significantly since mid-2018, the indicator has remained above the zero-point mark that distinguishes optimism from pessimism in the manufacturing sector.

July’s moderation came on the back of a broad-based deterioration in both business expectations and their assessments of the current situation. Firms’ forward-looking views on production were less optimistic, in line with a more moderate outlook on order-book. Moreover, firms were less positive regarding the future general economic situation and their future personal financial situation. As for the current situation, firms had worse assessments of the current general economic situation, and their assessments of current order books turned negative. Additionally, their assessments of present production also moved into pessimistic terrain, and their assessments of their current financial situation deteriorated.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to grow 6.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2020, the panel sees fixed investment growing 4.5%.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Poland Business Confidence Chart

Poland Business Confidence July 2019

Note: Value of month-on-month business confidence index. An index value above 0 indicates a positive assessment of the business climate while a value below 0 indicates a negative assessment.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS).

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