Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

Available data for the second quarter has been uneven, hinting that growth could be slowing on the heels of an exceptional first-quarter outturn. Household spending appears set to post solid gains in the quarter despite rising inflation; unemployment ticked down through May, sending retail sales higher. Meanwhile, industrial gains recovered somewhat from a weak end-first quarter, due in part to robust manufacturing output. That said, slower growth across Europe, as well as higher input costs due to the weak zloty, has been weighing on manufacturers. In the ongoing standoff between Warsaw and Brussels, in early July, Polish officials were set to enact sweeping judicial reforms into law against protests from the EU. Tensions have risen as the upcoming 2021–27 EU budget increasingly takes shape. European lawmakers have escalated their rhetoric on reallocating more than a quarter of the country’s cohesion funding, which could delay passage of a blocwide budget into next year.

Poland Economic Growth

Tight labor market dynamics and rapid wage growth will support strong consumer spending this year, while fixed investment will benefit from EU-linked funding inflows, upbeat business sentiment and a nascent construction boom. Export growth, meanwhile, is set to moderate somewhat as European demand cools. Fiscal slippage ahead of next year’s elections is likely to widen the deficit, while growing uncertainty over the next EU budget is hanging over the long-term outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 4.3% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.17-0.30 %Jul 13
Exchange Rate3.69-0.53 %Jul 13
Stock Market56,595-1.13 %Jul 13

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