Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

The economy seemingly took a notable hit from containment measures in the first quarter, which seems set to be even more severe in the second quarter. Industrial production and retail sales slumped at the tail-end of Q1, coinciding with the introduction of a partial lockdown, while crashing business and consumer confidence as well as manufacturing activity in April hint at the magnitude of the expected downturn in Q2. In further bids to cushion the economy, on 17 April Parliament approved a new package to protect jobs worth EUR 2.4 billion, and in early May backed a plan to support firms worth EUR 0.2 billion. Meanwhile, in mid-April, S&P Ratings affirmed Poland’s credit rating, citing the country’s manageable levels of public and private debts and its diversified economy. On a less positive note, in late April the European Commission launched legal action against Poland, questioning aspects of its judicial reform and thus reigniting conflicts with EU institutions.

Poland Economic Growth

GDP is projected to plunge this year, with the downturn largely concentrated in Q2. Lockdown measures, which are being gradually lifted, will hit consumer spending, while vanishing European demand and disrupted supply chains will weigh on the industrial sector. The severity and length of the pandemic remains the key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 3.5% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growing 4.4% in 2021.

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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