Poland Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017The Polish economy continued to fire on all cylinders in Q3, according to a recent release. Growth accelerated in both quarter-on-quarter and annual terms, with the latter marking the strongest result in nearly six years. While a complete breakdown is not yet available, data on retail sales and declining unemployment suggests household spending once again drove growth. According to monthly indicators, momentum seems to have carried over into Q4. In October industrial production soared, posting multi-year high growth, and the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory. Retail sales also continued to expand significantly in the same month, driven by an impressive annual rise in wages and a record-low unemployment rate. In late November, Parliament resumed work on laws giving it authority over judicial appointments, a subject of concern for the EU given its possible impact on the rule of law in Poland.
Poland Economic GrowthNext year growth should remain robust, albeit moderating from this year’s outstanding performance. Private consumption will likely prove resilient, underpinned by a further tightening in the labor market and strong wage increases. Meanwhile, higher EU fund inflows and supportive financing conditions should boost fixed investment. However, increased disbursements for public investment and the lowering of the retirement age will cause the government deficit to widen. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 3.3% in 2019.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.25||-0.30 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||3.57||-0.53 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||62,165||-1.13 %||Dec 06|
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Poland Economic News
December 5, 2017
As market analysts had largely expected, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% at its 4-5 December monetary policy meeting.
December 1, 2017
According to IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a nine-month high of 54.2 in November, up from 53.4 in the prior month.
November 30, 2017
Poland’s economy picked up pace in Q3, according to a second estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November.
November 24, 2017
In November, the manufacturing sector business climate remained stable at October’s 4.6, according to the Business Tendency Survey released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS-BTS).
November 22, 2017
Retail sales rose 8.0% from the same month a year earlier in October, decelerating slightly from September’s 8.6% increase.