Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

The economy expanded strongly in the first quarter, beating market expectations. A marked accumulation of stocks shielded against supply side disruptions and drove the acceleration. Strong, albeit softer, private consumption growth amid a healthy labor market further supported activity. The pace of economic growth should moderate in Q2, partially due to a waning low base effect. Industrial activity cooled in April, likely weighed down by supply chain constraints, while inflation continued to soar. Business sentiment remained subdued in April and May, while the PMI moved into contractionary terrain in May. That said, retail sales skyrocketed in April. Meanwhile, the government terminated its agreement with Russia to receive gas, while parliament approved a judicial reform to meet EU demands, paving the way to receive EU recovery funds.

Poland Economic Growth

The economy looks poised to expand at a softer pace this year than in 2021, amid a tougher base of comparison and elevated commodity prices. That said, EU fund inflows, accumulated savings and robust investment activity should buttress growth. Volatile energy prices and a further deterioration in EU-Russia relations pose downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.3% in 2022, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2023.

Poland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)38.038.038.038.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)11,32111,23612,30813,10513,934
GDP (EUR bn)430427467498529
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.14.95.44.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.32.34.95.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.03.94.54.23.9
Investment (annual variation in %)6.1-8.24.09.47.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.82.96.56.04.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.33.78.27.96.7
Unemployment Rate9.78.26.65.85.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.2-0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.354.350.648.846.0
Money (annual variation in %)9.69.74.58.88.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.82.11.13.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.7-0.21.61.22.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.1-0.12.92.01.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-9.611.423.2-9.50.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.264.404.184.294.25
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.184.364.264.264.30
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-0.50.0-1.00.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.4-2.20.3-5.02.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.22.91.4-4.82.4
Exports (EUR billion)172177202217230
Imports (EUR billion)170175200222228
Exports (annual variation in %)8.53.113.77.46.2
Imports (annual variation in %)5.02.714.910.52.8
International Reserves (EUR)86.910894.6102115
External Debt (% of GDP)70.575.368.263.059.1

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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