Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

After a solid rebound in GDP in Q2, available data suggests that activity continued to grow at a robust albeit slower pace in Q3. While moderating from their Q2 level, retail sales grew at a solid pace in July–August, and the unemployment rate fell, highlighting upbeat domestic demand dynamics. Moreover, industrial output growth held up well in the same period, despite a reducing base effect, while exports managed double-digit growth in a sign of a continued improvement in foreign demand. In fiscal news, on 30 September the government approved an expansive draft budget for 2022—now to be debated in parliament—which proposes spending of PNL 512 billion (around USD 110 billion) for the year. The budget sees the fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP and assumes GDP growth of 4.6% for 2022, which is relatively conservative compared with our panelists’ consensus.

Poland Economic Growth

GDP should rebound this year on strengthening domestic activity, supported by the EU’s recovery spending and a loose monetary stance. In 2022, growth should remain at a similar level, bolstered by improving public spending as restrictions are removed. That said, uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, as well as the country’s fragile coalition government, clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 5.1% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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