Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

After a historic plunge in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery in Q3. Industrial production swung to expansion in the quarter, hitting an over one-year high in September. Moreover, retail sales rebounded in July–September, suggesting that household spending firmed in the quarter. Meanwhile, merchandise exports bounced back from Q2’s contraction in July–August and the PMI remained in expansionary territory throughout the quarter. Turning to Q4, economic prospects are bleaker. Business sentiment in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in October, likely owing to the rapidly increasing number of new Covid-19 cases, which could weigh on activity in the final months of the year. In other news, following a court ruling on 22 October that effectively banned almost all abortions, nationwide protests have broken out, defying the Covid-19-induced restrictions on public gatherings.

Poland Economic Growth

After contracting notably this year on the hit from coronavirus containment measures, the economy is projected to rebound in 2021. Private consumption and fixed investment are seen expanding strongly, supported by fiscal relief measures. A high level of uncertainty due to the prolonged health crisis and potential further restrictions cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.7% in 2022.

Poland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)38.038.038.038.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)11,32111,23612,30813,10513,934
GDP (EUR bn)430427467498529
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.14.95.44.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.32.34.95.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.03.94.54.23.9
Investment (annual variation in %)6.1-8.24.09.47.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.82.96.56.04.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.33.78.27.96.7
Unemployment Rate9.78.26.65.85.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.2-0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.354.350.648.846.0
Money (annual variation in %)9.69.74.58.88.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.82.11.13.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.7-0.21.61.22.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.1-0.12.92.01.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-9.611.423.2-9.50.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.264.404.184.294.25
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.184.364.264.264.30
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-0.50.0-1.00.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.4-2.20.3-5.02.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.22.91.4-4.82.4
Exports (EUR billion)172177202217230
Imports (EUR billion)170175200222228
Exports (annual variation in %)8.53.113.77.46.2
Imports (annual variation in %)5.02.714.910.52.8
International Reserves (EUR)86.910894.6102115
External Debt (% of GDP)70.575.368.263.059.1

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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