Poland Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Poland’s economy continued defying expectations of an impending slowdown in the third quarter, matching the second quarter to record one of the best readings of the past decade. A breakdown by expenditure is still outstanding; that said, analysts have speculated that domestic demand again drove growth as it has done so over the past several quarters. Household spending and fixed investment likely posted robust gains on lower unemployment and heavy EU-linked structural funding, respectively, and seem to have offset tepid external demand from the European Union. Available data for the fourth quarter has thus far been upbeat: Consumers appear on track for another busy quarter as reflected by retail sales bouncing back in October and the jobless rate stable at its lowest in decades. Nevertheless, analysts have continued to forecast a slowdown in light of deteriorating supply-side metrics.
Poland Economic GrowthA maturing business cycle is expected to muffle the growth rate over the next few years amid higher inflation and as gains in the labor market taper. As it stands, fixed investment should benefit from low interest rates and higher absorption of EU-linked funds. However, external-sector anxieties—especially over a broad slowdown across the EU and a further pullback in global trade—pose the key short-term risks. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the 2021–2027 EU budget hangs over the long-term outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.00||-0.30 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||3.80||-0.53 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||56,962||-1.13 %||Dec 11|
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Poland Economic News
November 22, 2018
Nominal retail sales rose 9.7% from the same month a year earlier in October, up sharply from September’s 5.6% year-on-year expansion.
November 20, 2018
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production expanded 7.4% in October over the same month a year ago, up from September’s 2.8% reading on stronger gains in manufacturing.
November 14, 2018
According to preliminary data released by the Central Statistical Office on 14 November, the economy expanded an unadjusted 5.1% annually in Q3, matching Q2’s expansion and exceeding market analysts’ expectations.
November 14, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier in October, following a 0.2% month-on-month increase in September.
November 7, 2018
As widely expected by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 6–7 November monetary policy meeting.