Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

Robust consumption dynamics have been the economic story to beat in Poland for over a year, and they remain critical to the country’s growth prospects, having shown no signs of abating thus far in H2. Hinting that household spending remained upbeat since its impressive outturn in Q2, retail sales continued their ascent in August while unemployment ticked down. Other indicators pointed to an acceleration in industrial activity, with industrial output jumping in August on strong growth in the energy sector, and the manufacturing PMI reaching a six-month high in September as new orders soared. That said, the sluggishness of investment—another long-running economic story that had registered a small turnaround in Q2—appeared to worsen in Q3, with business confidence edging down through the quarter.

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.310.55 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate3.59-0.21 %Oct 18
Stock Market64,474-0.59 %Oct 18

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Poland Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

Household spending is expected to bolster growth this year and next. Moreover, investment is expected to make a full recovery this year and then improve sharply as EU funding continues ramping up. Strong demand from Europe will keep upward pressure on export growth, although consumption-driven imports will limit the sector’s contribution to growth. Downside risks continue to stem from the ongoing dispute between the government and Brussels over judicial reforms. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.9% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Poland Economic News

  • Poland: Industrial output accelerates further in August

    October 18, 2017

    According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production grew 4.3% in September from the same month of last year, decelerating from August’s 8.8% expansion.

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  • Poland: Inflation accelerates further in September

    October 12, 2017

    Consumer prices increased 0.4% in September, contrasting August’s 0.1% decline.

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  • Poland: NBP holds fire on rates in October

    October 6, 2017

    As largely anticipated by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low of 1.50% at its 3–4 October monetary policy meeting.

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  • Poland: Manufacturing PMI rises on jump in new orders in September

    October 2, 2017

    According to IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 53.7 in September from 52.5 a month earlier, landing further above the 50-point threshold that distinguishes expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector—where it has been for nearly three years.

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  • Poland: Inflation climbs in September

    September 29, 2017

    According to a preliminary estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on 29 September, consumer prices increased 0.4% in September from a month earlier, contrasting August’s 0.1% decline. Inflation climbed to 2.2% in September, accelerating from August’s 1.8% and closing in on the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.5% plus/minus 1.0 percentage point.

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