Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The Polish economy continued to fire on all cylinders in Q3, according to a recent release. Growth accelerated in both quarter-on-quarter and annual terms, with the latter marking the strongest result in nearly six years. While a complete breakdown is not yet available, data on retail sales and declining unemployment suggests household spending once again drove growth. According to monthly indicators, momentum seems to have carried over into Q4. In October industrial production soared, posting multi-year high growth, and the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory. Retail sales also continued to expand significantly in the same month, driven by an impressive annual rise in wages and a record-low unemployment rate. In late November, Parliament resumed work on laws giving it authority over judicial appointments, a subject of concern for the EU given its possible impact on the rule of law in Poland.

Poland Economic Growth

Next year growth should remain robust, albeit moderating from this year’s outstanding performance. Private consumption will likely prove resilient, underpinned by a further tightening in the labor market and strong wage increases. Meanwhile, higher EU fund inflows and supportive financing conditions should boost fixed investment. However, increased disbursements for public investment and the lowering of the retirement age will cause the government deficit to widen. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 3.3% in 2019.

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.25-0.30 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate3.57-0.53 %Dec 06
Stock Market62,165-1.13 %Dec 06

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