Poland Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020After a historic plunge in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery in Q3. Industrial production swung to expansion in the quarter, hitting an over one-year high in September. Moreover, retail sales rebounded in July–September, suggesting that household spending firmed in the quarter. Meanwhile, merchandise exports bounced back from Q2’s contraction in July–August and the PMI remained in expansionary territory throughout the quarter. Turning to Q4, economic prospects are bleaker. Business sentiment in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in October, likely owing to the rapidly increasing number of new Covid-19 cases, which could weigh on activity in the final months of the year. In other news, following a court ruling on 22 October that effectively banned almost all abortions, nationwide protests have broken out, defying the Covid-19-induced restrictions on public gatherings.
Poland Economic GrowthAfter contracting notably this year on the hit from coronavirus containment measures, the economy is projected to rebound in 2021. Private consumption and fixed investment are seen expanding strongly, supported by fiscal relief measures. A high level of uncertainty due to the prolonged health crisis and potential further restrictions cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.7% in 2022.
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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Poland Economic News
November 23, 2020
Retail sales dropped 2.1% year-on-year in October, contrasting September’s 2.7% expansion.
November 20, 2020
Industrial output increased 1.0% in year-on-year terms in October, a softer rise than September's 5.9% expansion.
November 13, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.10% in October over the previous month, down slightly from the 0.20% increase seen in September.
November 13, 2020
According to a preliminary estimate, the economy contracted at a milder pace in the third quarter, with GDP decreasing 1.6% on an annual basis following Q2’s record-breaking 8.4% slump.
November 6, 2020
At its meeting on 6 November, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) stood pat, leaving the reference rate at its record low of 0.10%, marking the fifth consecutive hold and coming in line with market expectations.