Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

The economy shifted into a lower gear in the final quarter of last year, restrained by heavy destocking and cooling household spending. On the other hand, sustained investment dynamics and a larger contribution from the external sector cushioned the slowdown somewhat. Turning to the first quarter of this year, growth looks set to slow down significantly, hit by the impact of coronavirus. Consumer confidence dived to an over eight-year low in February, which, coupled with milder retail sales growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate in January, spells trouble for consumer spending. Meanwhile, the virus and prolonged weakness in Germany will be hitting investment activity. In early March, Parliament approved a special law in efforts to cushion the economic impacts from Covid-19. Earlier in February, Parliament voted a balanced budget for 2020, the first since the fall of communism.

Poland Economic Growth

Growth will cool in 2020, constrained by weaker private investment and an unsupportive EU environment. However, the pace of expansion should be healthy, as robust wage increases, tax cuts and a tight labor market buttress household spending. Weaker than expected activity in the EU and disruptions to global supply chains stemming from coronavirus pose the main downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.3% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2021.

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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