Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

After a solid rebound in GDP in Q2, available data suggests that activity continued to grow at a robust albeit slower pace in Q3. While moderating from their Q2 level, retail sales grew at a solid pace in July–August, and the unemployment rate fell, highlighting upbeat domestic demand dynamics. Moreover, industrial output growth held up well in the same period, despite a reducing base effect, while exports managed double-digit growth in a sign of a continued improvement in foreign demand. In fiscal news, on 30 September the government approved an expansive draft budget for 2022—now to be debated in parliament—which proposes spending of PNL 512 billion (around USD 110 billion) for the year. The budget sees the fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP and assumes GDP growth of 4.6% for 2022, which is relatively conservative compared with our panelists’ consensus.

Poland Economic Growth

GDP should rebound this year on strengthening domestic activity, supported by the EU’s recovery spending and a loose monetary stance. In 2022, growth should remain at a similar level, bolstered by improving public spending as restrictions are removed. That said, uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, as well as the country’s fragile coalition government, clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 5.1% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Poland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)38.038.038.038.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)11,32111,23612,30813,10513,934
GDP (EUR bn)430427467498529
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.14.95.44.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.32.34.95.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.03.94.54.23.9
Investment (annual variation in %)6.1-8.24.09.47.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.82.96.56.04.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.33.78.27.96.7
Unemployment Rate9.78.26.65.85.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.2-0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.354.350.648.846.0
Money (annual variation in %)9.69.74.58.88.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.82.11.13.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.7-0.21.61.22.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.1-0.12.92.01.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-9.611.423.2-9.50.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.264.404.184.294.25
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.184.364.264.264.30
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-0.50.0-1.00.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.4-2.20.3-5.02.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.22.91.4-4.82.4
Exports (EUR billion)172177202217230
Imports (EUR billion)170175200222228
Exports (annual variation in %)8.53.113.77.46.2
Imports (annual variation in %)5.02.714.910.52.8
International Reserves (EUR)86.910894.6102115
External Debt (% of GDP)70.575.368.263.059.1

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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