Poland Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019
Last year’s fourth-quarter slowdown confirmed widely-held expectations. Although fixed investment growth moderated, domestic demand remained a force to be reckoned with. Household spending remained in the driver’s seat despite decelerating somewhat amid slower employment gains. Notably, a pullback in the Eurozone failed to bruise export growth. Available first-quarter data, meanwhile, suggests that last year’s industrial-sector woes persisted at the outset of the year. Eyeing last year’s impressive fiscal outturn and this autumn’s parliamentary elections, the Law and Justice (PiS) government unveiled an additional PLN 40 billion (EUR 9.3 billion) spending plan on 23 February. The expanded “Family 500+” program is expected to boost household spending and should effectively cushion this year’s cool-off without stretching the fiscal deficit beyond EU-mandated limits.Poland Economic Growth
Full-year growth reached 5.1% last year. Going forward, however, an uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle will increasingly taper gains. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment will be hit by slower wage and credit growth, respectively, as well as higher borrowing costs. On the external front, a slower Eurozone will dent export-oriented activity. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.1% in 2020.Poland Economy Data
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Poland Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.88 | -0.30 % | Mar 11 |
| Exchange Rate | 3.82 | -0.53 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 59,470 | -1.13 % | Mar 11 |
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Poland Economic News
Poland: Central Bank stands pat at March meeting
March 6, 2019
As widely expected by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record-low 1.50% at its 5–6 March monetary policy meeting.
Poland: Manufacturing sector contracts sharply in February
March 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, dropped to 47.6 points in February (January: 48.2 points).
Poland: Growth cools through last year-end
February 28, 2019
Poland’s economy grew 4.9% year-on-year in unadjusted terms in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Office (GUS) on 28 February.
Poland: Business confidence recovers further in February
February 25, 2019
Manufacturing-sector business confidence recovered further in February, according to the business tendency indicators released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
Poland: Retail sales growth perks up in January
February 21, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 6.6% year-on-year in January, up from December’s 4.7% rise.
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