Poland Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019Following the first quarter’s strong outturn, which was buttressed by upbeat domestic demand and a supportive external sector, momentum likely carried over into Q2. Surging industrial production and retail sales in April-May suggest the country’s industrial sector has so far dodged industrial weakness in the EU, and that a tight labor market coupled with swiftly rising wages are underpinning consumer spending. In the political arena, following May’s European elections, the government reshuffled many senior ministers, including the finance minister. Confirming the expectations of analysts, who see the new finance minister as more likely to loosen the purse strings, in June the government approved plans to raise the tax-free allowance for workers under 26 by more than 12-fold. Meanwhile, on 24 June, the EU’s top court ruled that Poland’s judiciary reform breached EU law, which means the country has to reverse the changes or face penalties.
Poland Economic GrowthGrowth seems set to lose some steam this year, restrained by a weak performance of the EU. However, the expansion will remain solid, spurred by buoyant domestic demand on the back of easy credit conditions, continued EU funds absorption and strong wage growth. On top of that, the fiscal stimulus adds upside risks to the outlook, although it could widen the fiscal deficit. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 4.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.4% in 2020.
Poland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.29||-0.30 %||Jul 11|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||60,362||-1.13 %||Jul 11|
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Poland Economic News
July 3, 2019
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% at its 2–3 July monetary policy meeting, as had been widely expected.
July 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, edged down to 48.4 points in June (May: 48.8 points).
June 28, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, following May’s 0.2% uptick, according to data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
June 26, 2019
Manufacturing-sector business confidence lost some further ground in June, according to the business tendency indicators released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
June 25, 2019
Nominal retail sales rose 7.3% year-on-year in May, coming in below April’s 13.6% jump.