Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

Last year’s fourth-quarter slowdown confirmed widely-held expectations. Although fixed investment growth moderated, domestic demand remained a force to be reckoned with. Household spending remained in the driver’s seat despite decelerating somewhat amid slower employment gains. Notably, a pullback in the Eurozone failed to bruise export growth. Available first-quarter data, meanwhile, suggests that last year’s industrial-sector woes persisted at the outset of the year. Eyeing last year’s impressive fiscal outturn and this autumn’s parliamentary elections, the Law and Justice (PiS) government unveiled an additional PLN 40 billion (EUR 9.3 billion) spending plan on 23 February. The expanded “Family 500+” program is expected to boost household spending and should effectively cushion this year’s cool-off without stretching the fiscal deficit beyond EU-mandated limits.

Poland Economic Growth

Full-year growth reached 5.1% last year. Going forward, however, an uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle will increasingly taper gains. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment will be hit by slower wage and credit growth, respectively, as well as higher borrowing costs. On the external front, a slower Eurozone will dent export-oriented activity. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.1% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield2.88-0.30 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate3.82-0.53 %Mar 11
Stock Market59,470-1.13 %Mar 11

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