Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

September 8, 2020

GDP plummeted at a record pace in Q2 as the Covid-19 crisis hit all areas of the economy. Lockdown measures slammed household and capital spending, while on the external front, muted European demand and disrupted supply chains pummeled exports. However, public expenditure growth did pick up pace amid wide-ranging fiscal relief packages. Turning to Q3, incoming data hints at firming activity. In July, industrial output gained traction on rising manufacturing activity, while retail sales rebounded. Moreover, although the PMI showed that private-sector activity eased somewhat in August from July’s two-year high amid renewed coronavirus concerns, it remained in expansionary territory. Meanwhile, on 20 August, the government approved a revised budget, projecting a fiscal shortfall of 12% of GDP this year, up from 8.4% previously and reflecting the impact of the pandemic on public finances.

Poland Economic Growth

GDP is expected to contract markedly this year as containment measures drag on domestic activity, while suppressed global demand hammers exports. Although the government’s substantial fiscal stimulus should mitigate the fallout and provide support for a rebound ahead, a potential second wave of the virus and heightened economic uncertainty cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 4.0% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growing 4.4% in 2021.

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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