Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

Following the first quarter’s strong outturn, which was buttressed by upbeat domestic demand and a supportive external sector, momentum likely carried over into Q2. Surging industrial production and retail sales in April-May suggest the country’s industrial sector has so far dodged industrial weakness in the EU, and that a tight labor market coupled with swiftly rising wages are underpinning consumer spending. In the political arena, following May’s European elections, the government reshuffled many senior ministers, including the finance minister. Confirming the expectations of analysts, who see the new finance minister as more likely to loosen the purse strings, in June the government approved plans to raise the tax-free allowance for workers under 26 by more than 12-fold. Meanwhile, on 24 June, the EU’s top court ruled that Poland’s judiciary reform breached EU law, which means the country has to reverse the changes or face penalties.

Poland Economic Growth

Growth seems set to lose some steam this year, restrained by a weak performance of the EU. However, the expansion will remain solid, spurred by buoyant domestic demand on the back of easy credit conditions, continued EU funds absorption and strong wage growth. On top of that, the fiscal stimulus adds upside risks to the outlook, although it could widen the fiscal deficit. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 4.1% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating further to 3.4% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield2.29-0.30 %Jul 11
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jul 11
Stock Market60,362-1.13 %Jul 11

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