Poland Economic Outlook
March 10, 2020The economy shifted into a lower gear in the final quarter of last year, restrained by heavy destocking and cooling household spending. On the other hand, sustained investment dynamics and a larger contribution from the external sector cushioned the slowdown somewhat. Turning to the first quarter of this year, growth looks set to slow down significantly, hit by the impact of coronavirus. Consumer confidence dived to an over eight-year low in February, which, coupled with milder retail sales growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate in January, spells trouble for consumer spending. Meanwhile, the virus and prolonged weakness in Germany will be hitting investment activity. In early March, Parliament approved a special law in efforts to cushion the economic impacts from Covid-19. Earlier in February, Parliament voted a balanced budget for 2020, the first since the fall of communism.
Poland Economic GrowthGrowth will cool in 2020, constrained by weaker private investment and an unsupportive EU environment. However, the pace of expansion should be healthy, as robust wage increases, tax cuts and a tight labor market buttress household spending. Weaker than expected activity in the EU and disruptions to global supply chains stemming from coronavirus pose the main downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.3% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2021.
Poland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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Poland Economic News
April 1, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, fell from 48.2 in February to March’s 42.4, as the economy is severely hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
March 24, 2020
Manufacturing-sector business confidence lost ground in March, dragged down by concerns associated to the economic impact of coronavirus, according to the business tendency indicator released by Statistics Poland.
March 20, 2020
Nominal retail sales soared 9.6% year-on-year in February, up from January’s 5.7% expansion.
March 19, 2020
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) slashed the reference rate from 1.50% to a record low of 1.00% at an extraordinary monetary policy meeting held on 17 March in a bid to shield the economy from the negative spillovers from the spread of coronavirus.
March 19, 2020
Industrial output soared 4.9% year-on-year in February, following the weaker 1.1% uptick recorded in January, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS).