Poland Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020After a historic plunge in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery in Q3. Industrial production swung to expansion in the quarter, hitting an over one-year high in September. Moreover, retail sales rebounded in July–September, suggesting that household spending firmed in the quarter. Meanwhile, merchandise exports bounced back from Q2’s contraction in July–August and the PMI remained in expansionary territory throughout the quarter. Turning to Q4, economic prospects are bleaker. Business sentiment in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in October, likely owing to the rapidly increasing number of new Covid-19 cases, which could weigh on activity in the final months of the year. In other news, following a court ruling on 22 October that effectively banned almost all abortions, nationwide protests have broken out, defying the Covid-19-induced restrictions on public gatherings.
Poland Economic GrowthAfter contracting notably this year on the hit from coronavirus containment measures, the economy is projected to rebound in 2021. Private consumption and fixed investment are seen expanding strongly, supported by fiscal relief measures. A high level of uncertainty due to the prolonged health crisis and potential further restrictions cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.7% in 2022.
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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Poland Economic News
February 23, 2021
Business confidence rose to minus 8.3 in February from January's minus 9.9.
February 18, 2021
Industrial output expanded 0.9% year-on-year in January (December: +11.1% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since June 2020.
February 15, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.20% in January over the previous month, picking up from December's 0.10% rise, according to a preliminary reading.
February 12, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, the economy shrank at a steeper rate in the final quarter of 2020, with GDP decreasing 2.8% year-on-year, below the 1.5% contraction tallied in the third quarter.
February 3, 2021
At its meeting on 3 February, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) once again decided to maintain the reference rate at its historic low of 0.10%.