Poland Economic Outlook
January 11, 2022GDP growth lost some momentum in Q3, according to a revised estimate, with a weaker base effect weighing on activity. Nevertheless, public spending remained relatively solid, with higher fixed investment growth helping to bolster the overall reading. Turning to Q4, the economy looks to have ended 2021 on a strong footing: Industrial production averaged notably higher in October–November than in Q3, while retail sales surged to a seven-month high in November, indicating improving growth in consumer spending. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI rose steadily throughout Q4 on strengthening output and demand. However, surging inflation could have weighed on activity in the final stretch of the year, with the country’s high-emission, coal-intensive energy system translating into higher energy prices for businesses and households.
Poland Economic GrowthThis year, GDP growth should remain at a similar level to 2021’s projected increase, supported by robust consumer and capital spending. That said, a normalization of global trade should see export growth slow, while uncertainty surrounding the pandemic—with the potential for tighter restrictions—as well as the country’s fragile coalition government, clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.1% in 2023.
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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Poland Economic News
January 4, 2022
At its meeting on 4 January, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised the reference rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%, matching the move it made in December and marking the fourth consecutive rate hike.
January 3, 2022
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 56.1 in December, rising from 54.4 in November.
December 23, 2021
Business confidence came in at minus 12.2 in December, down from November's minus 10.5.
December 21, 2021
Retail sales increased 21.2% year-on-year in November, which was above October’s 14.4% reading and marked the ninth consecutive month of growth.
December 20, 2021
Industrial output grew 15.2% in year-on-year terms in November, which was above October's 7.6% increase.