Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Poland’s economy continued defying expectations of an impending slowdown in the third quarter, matching the second quarter to record one of the best readings of the past decade. A breakdown by expenditure is still outstanding; that said, analysts have speculated that domestic demand again drove growth as it has done so over the past several quarters. Household spending and fixed investment likely posted robust gains on lower unemployment and heavy EU-linked structural funding, respectively, and seem to have offset tepid external demand from the European Union. Available data for the fourth quarter has thus far been upbeat: Consumers appear on track for another busy quarter as reflected by retail sales bouncing back in October and the jobless rate stable at its lowest in decades. Nevertheless, analysts have continued to forecast a slowdown in light of deteriorating supply-side metrics.

Poland Economic Growth

A maturing business cycle is expected to muffle the growth rate over the next few years amid higher inflation and as gains in the labor market taper. As it stands, fixed investment should benefit from low interest rates and higher absorption of EU-linked funds. However, external-sector anxieties—especially over a broad slowdown across the EU and a further pullback in global trade—pose the key short-term risks. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the 2021–2027 EU budget hangs over the long-term outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.00-0.30 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate3.80-0.53 %Dec 11
Stock Market56,962-1.13 %Dec 11

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