Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

In parliamentary elections held on 13 October, the ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party won a second consecutive four-year term. Although the PiS increased its vote share from last time around, it retained the same number of seats in the lower house and, crucially, fell one seat short of obtaining an absolute majority in the Senate. While this could make for a bumpy legislative process, policy continuity is likely ahead, characterized by generous social spending and fiscal expansion. Against this political backdrop, growth seems to have further slowed in Q3, as a weak external environment dented industrial production growth and retail sales lost some steam. In other news, in early October, the EU’s top court ruled in favor of Polish borrowers with mortgages linked to the Swiss franc; the ruling will not represent a serious blow for Polish banks, however, as it provides for a case-by-case resolution.

Poland Economic Growth

The economy will shift into a lower gear in 2020, weighed on by the challenging external backdrop, lower government investment growth, a less buoyant construction sector and as intensifying supply-side constraints restrain domestic demand. That said, robust consumer spending will continue to power the economy despite softening somewhat on fewer job gains. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2021.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield1.89-0.30 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate3.93-0.53 %Sep 04
Stock Market56,176-1.13 %Sep 04

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