Poland Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021After a solid rebound in GDP in Q2, available data suggests that activity continued to grow at a robust albeit slower pace in Q3. While moderating from their Q2 level, retail sales grew at a solid pace in July–August, and the unemployment rate fell, highlighting upbeat domestic demand dynamics. Moreover, industrial output growth held up well in the same period, despite a reducing base effect, while exports managed double-digit growth in a sign of a continued improvement in foreign demand. In fiscal news, on 30 September the government approved an expansive draft budget for 2022—now to be debated in parliament—which proposes spending of PNL 512 billion (around USD 110 billion) for the year. The budget sees the fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP and assumes GDP growth of 4.6% for 2022, which is relatively conservative compared with our panelists’ consensus.
Poland Economic GrowthGDP should rebound this year on strengthening domestic activity, supported by the EU’s recovery spending and a loose monetary stance. In 2022, growth should remain at a similar level, bolstered by improving public spending as restrictions are removed. That said, uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, as well as the country’s fragile coalition government, clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 5.1% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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Poland Economic News
October 1, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at a seven-month low of 53.4 in September, down from 56.0 in August.
September 23, 2021
Business confidence fell to minus 3.6 in September from August's minus 0.9.
September 21, 2021
Retail sales rose 10.7% compared to the same month of the previous year in August, which followed July's 8.9% increase.
September 20, 2021
Industrial production expanded 13.2% year-on-year in August, increasing from July’s 9.5% reading.
September 15, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.30% from the previous month in August, coming in below July's 0.40% increase.