Poland Economic Outlook
May 12, 2020The economy seemingly took a notable hit from containment measures in the first quarter, which seems set to be even more severe in the second quarter. Industrial production and retail sales slumped at the tail-end of Q1, coinciding with the introduction of a partial lockdown, while crashing business and consumer confidence as well as manufacturing activity in April hint at the magnitude of the expected downturn in Q2. In further bids to cushion the economy, on 17 April Parliament approved a new package to protect jobs worth EUR 2.4 billion, and in early May backed a plan to support firms worth EUR 0.2 billion. Meanwhile, in mid-April, S&P Ratings affirmed Poland’s credit rating, citing the country’s manageable levels of public and private debts and its diversified economy. On a less positive note, in late April the European Commission launched legal action against Poland, questioning aspects of its judicial reform and thus reigniting conflicts with EU institutions.
Poland Economic GrowthGDP is projected to plunge this year, with the downturn largely concentrated in Q2. Lockdown measures, which are being gradually lifted, will hit consumer spending, while vanishing European demand and disrupted supply chains will weigh on the industrial sector. The severity and length of the pandemic remains the key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 3.5% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growing 4.4% in 2021.
Poland Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
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Poland Economic News
July 2, 2020
Consumer prices jumped 0.7% over the previous month in June, following May’s 0.2% decline, according to provisional data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
July 1, 2020
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recovered further ground and rose from May’s 40.6 to 47.2 in June.
June 25, 2020
Manufacturing-sector business confidence recovered some additional ground in June, although it remained deeply entrenched in pessimist terrain.
June 22, 2020
Retail sales contracted 8.6% year-on-year in May, following April’s 22.6% collapse, which had marked the steepest fall on record.
June 19, 2020
Industrial output dived 17.0% year-on-year in May, following the all-time sharp 24.6% collapse recorded in April, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS).