Poland Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020After a historic plunge in activity in Q2, recent data hints at a recovery in Q3. Industrial production swung to expansion in the quarter, hitting an over one-year high in September. Moreover, retail sales rebounded in July–September, suggesting that household spending firmed in the quarter. Meanwhile, merchandise exports bounced back from Q2’s contraction in July–August and the PMI remained in expansionary territory throughout the quarter. Turning to Q4, economic prospects are bleaker. Business sentiment in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in October, likely owing to the rapidly increasing number of new Covid-19 cases, which could weigh on activity in the final months of the year. In other news, following a court ruling on 22 October that effectively banned almost all abortions, nationwide protests have broken out, defying the Covid-19-induced restrictions on public gatherings.
Poland Economic GrowthAfter contracting notably this year on the hit from coronavirus containment measures, the economy is projected to rebound in 2021. Private consumption and fixed investment are seen expanding strongly, supported by fiscal relief measures. A high level of uncertainty due to the prolonged health crisis and potential further restrictions cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.7% in 2022.
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|Bond Yield||2.07||-0.30 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||3.79||-0.53 %||Jan 01|
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Poland Economic News
May 5, 2021
At its meeting on 5 May, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) once again kept the reference rate unchanged at 0.10%, which was in line with market expectations.
May 4, 2021
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 53.7 in April, down from March's 54.3, but still marked the second-highest reading since June 2018.Consequently, the index remained above the 50-threshold signaling an improvement in business conditions from the previous month.
April 30, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.70% in April over the previous month, following the 1.00% increase seen in March, according to a preliminary estimate.
April 26, 2021
Manufacturing-sector business confidence came in at minus 4.0 in April, up from March's minus 6.6 and marking the best reading since March 2020.
April 22, 2021
Retail sales increased 17.1% compared to the same month a year earlier in March, which contrasted February's 2.7% decrease.