Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

GDP growth lost some momentum in Q3, according to a revised estimate, with a weaker base effect weighing on activity. Nevertheless, public spending remained relatively solid, with higher fixed investment growth helping to bolster the overall reading. Turning to Q4, the economy looks to have ended 2021 on a strong footing: Industrial production averaged notably higher in October–November than in Q3, while retail sales surged to a seven-month high in November, indicating improving growth in consumer spending. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI rose steadily throughout Q4 on strengthening output and demand. However, surging inflation could have weighed on activity in the final stretch of the year, with the country’s high-emission, coal-intensive energy system translating into higher energy prices for businesses and households.

Poland Economic Growth

This year, GDP growth should remain at a similar level to 2021’s projected increase, supported by robust consumer and capital spending. That said, a normalization of global trade should see export growth slow, while uncertainty surrounding the pandemic—with the potential for tighter restrictions—as well as the country’s fragile coalition government, clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.1% in 2023.

Poland Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)38.038.038.038.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)11,32111,23612,30813,10513,934
GDP (EUR bn)430427467498529
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.14.95.44.2
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.32.34.95.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.03.94.54.23.9
Investment (annual variation in %)6.1-8.24.09.47.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.82.96.56.04.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.33.78.27.96.7
Unemployment Rate9.78.26.65.85.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.2-0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.354.350.648.846.0
Money (annual variation in %)9.69.74.58.88.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.82.11.13.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.7-0.21.61.22.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.1-0.12.92.01.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-9.611.423.2-9.50.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.264.404.184.294.25
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.184.364.264.264.30
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-0.50.0-1.00.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.4-2.20.3-5.02.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.22.91.4-4.82.4
Exports (EUR billion)172177202217230
Imports (EUR billion)170175200222228
Exports (annual variation in %)8.53.113.77.46.2
Imports (annual variation in %)5.02.714.910.52.8
International Reserves (EUR)86.910894.6102115
External Debt (% of GDP)70.575.368.263.059.1

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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