Poland Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Third-quarter growth defied expectations of an impending slowdown, matching the second quarter as domestic demand showed little sign of letting up. Fixed investment surged on the continued absorption of EU-linked structural funding, and household spending remained upbeat in light of strong earnings and low unemployment. Notably, inflation hovered below-target through the quarter despite the expansion. Available fourth-quarter data, however, suggests that economic growth may be decelerating. Survey-based data from the manufacturing sector slid through the better part of last year and, most recently, purchasing activity signaled a downturn in November and December. This would appear to align industrial metrics with the recent Eurozone pullback, which has hit export orders and is likely to continue doing so over the short-term. Consumers, on the other hand, have so far been spared and look set to continue driving economic gains; the labor market tightened through November and retail sales thus far appear unscathed.
Poland Economic GrowthAn uncertain global backdrop and the late-stage business cycle are expected to taper growth this year. Domestically, household spending and fixed investment are seen moderating as employment gains slow and borrowing costs eventually rise, respectively. On the external front, a Eurozone slowdown and, more broadly, weaker growth overseas will weigh on activity. Politically, election-year spending risks stretching the fiscal deficit and perennial squabbling between Warsaw and Brussels, as well as the 2021–2027 EU budget, are bruising long-term economic prospects. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.7% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.
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|Bond Yield||2.74||-0.30 %||Jan 14|
|Exchange Rate||3.74||-0.53 %||Jan 14|
|Stock Market||59,113||-1.13 %||Jan 14|
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Poland Economic News
January 4, 2019
A flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) revealed that consumer prices were stable from a month earlier in December (November: +0.0% month-on-month).
January 2, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, experienced further downturn in December, dipping to 47.6 points (November: 49.5 points).
December 21, 2018
Nominal retail sales rose 8.2% from the same month a year earlier in November, down from October’s 9.7% year-on-year expansion.
December 21, 2018
Manufacturing-sector business confidence notched down in December, according to the business tendency indicators released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
December 19, 2018
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production expanded 4.7% in November over the same month a year earlier, down from October’s 7.4% reading on weaker gains in manufacturing.