Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

GDP growth lost some momentum in Q3, according to a revised estimate, with a weaker base effect weighing on activity. Nevertheless, public spending remained relatively solid, with higher fixed investment growth helping to bolster the overall reading. Turning to Q4, the economy looks to have ended 2021 on a strong footing: Industrial production averaged notably higher in October–November than in Q3, while retail sales surged to a seven-month high in November, indicating improving growth in consumer spending. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI rose steadily throughout Q4 on strengthening output and demand. However, surging inflation could have weighed on activity in the final stretch of the year, with the country’s high-emission, coal-intensive energy system translating into higher energy prices for businesses and households.

Poland Economic Growth

This year, GDP growth should remain at a similar level to 2021’s projected increase, supported by robust consumer and capital spending. That said, a normalization of global trade should see export growth slow, while uncertainty surrounding the pandemic—with the potential for tighter restrictions—as well as the country’s fragile coalition government, clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.1% in 2023.

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Poland Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield2.07-0.30 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3.79-0.53 %Jan 01

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