Philippines: Inflation ebbs in June from May
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 6.4% in annual terms in June, following a 6.8% increase in the previous month. The reading came in below market expectations but remained sharply above the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target range.
Relative to the prior month’s data, there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.2% on a year-on-year basis vs +5.7% in May) and transport (+12.8% vs +16.2% in May). In contrast, price pressures were higher for housing and utilities in June (+8.0% vs +7.8% in May). Finally, the variation in clothing and footwear prices was the same as in the prior month (+3.0% in June and May).
Finally, consumer prices were down 0.29% in June in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms, following a 0.51% decline in the previous month.
Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting commented on the outlook:
“Given the sharper-than-expected easing in headline inflation over the past two months, lower oil price prospects, and continued government support measures, we are now revising our 2026 inflation forecast down to 6.0% from 7.5% (BSP est: 6.4%; 2025: 1.7%). That said, the near-term inflation outlook remains subject to risks from US-Iran peace talks, El Niño-related supply disruptions, minimum wage hikes, and PHP volatility amid unfavourable base effects.”