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Philippines Inflation April 2024

Philippines: Inflation comes in at highest level since December 2023 in April

Inflation rose to 3.8% in April, following March’s 3.7%. April’s figure was the highest inflation rate since December 2023. The reading was driven by stronger price pressures for food and transportation, with red-hot prices for rice continuing to fan domestic inflation.

The trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.5% in April (March: 4.7%).

Finally, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.23% in April over the previous month, below the 0.33% rise logged in March. April’s result marked the weakest reading since January.

United Overseas Bank analysts Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting said:

“The nation’s headline inflation is expected to stay near or above 4.0% in the next few months before reversing course in late Q3 2024 and settling within the central bank’s medium-term target range in Q4 2024. This is largely due to the impact of extreme weather and base effects. It will take the full-year inflation rate to an average of 3.5% this year (BSP est: 3.8%, 2023: 6.0%), with the continued nonmonetary intervention measures by the government playing a critical role in containing supply-driven price pressures. […] We now anticipate BSP to start cutting its policy rates only in Q4 2024 (from Q2 2024 previously) when the central bank gains greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to its mid-point target and US Fed has kicked off its rate cut cycle.”

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