Peru: Economic activity slows in June
Latest reading: Economic activity rose 1.8% on a year-on-year basis in June, following 2.2% growth in the previous month. June’s reading was the weakest since November 2025. The reading fell well short of market expectations as weather anomalies hit the primary sector, driven by a sharp contraction in fishing due to an El Niño-induced ban that severely reduced anchovy catches.
Relative to the previous month’s figures, readings in June softened for agriculture (-8.1% on a year-on-year basis vs +2.2% in May) and mining and hydrocarbons (-2.2% vs +2.9% in May). In contrast, readings improved for commerce (+7.8% vs +6.9% in May), construction (+9.0% vs +4.8% in May) and manufacturing (-6.2% vs -9.9% in May).
In month-on-month terms, economic activity fell 0.2% in June, following a 1.2% decline in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Regarding the outlook, Yalina Crispin and Hugo Vega, analysts at BBVA, noted:
“Looking ahead, demand indicators are expected to remain solid: business and consumer confidence have rebounded following the outcome of the presidential election, and the external context, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, is likely to prove favorable, supported by strong prices for the metals Peru exports. Consequently, we believe non-primary activity sectors will continue to sustain growth of over 4%. The main drag would be El Niño, whose forecasts have deteriorated according to the latest ENFEN report, and will continue to affect the performance of primary sectors.”