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Peru Economic Activity November 2023

Peru: Economic activity grows at fastest pace since April in November

Economic activity grew 0.3% compared to the same month of the previous year in November, which contrasted October’s 0.8% decrease. The result marked the best reading since April. Looking at the details of the release, the commerce sector expanded at a slower pace in November, while agricultural production accelerated. Meanwhile, output in the construction sector dropped at a softer pace. Lastly, activity in the manufacturing sector gained pace, while mining and hydrocarbons production expanded.

On a monthly basis, economic activity rose at a quicker rate of 0.8% in November (October: +0.1% mom), the best result since June. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at an over two-year low of minus 0.4% in November, down from October’s minus 0.3%.

Commenting on the outlook, Julio Ruiz, economist at Itaú Unibanco stated:

“Our GDP growth forecast for 2023 stands at -0.4%, recovering this year to 2.5%. A likely moderate/weak El Niño phenomenon will likely weigh on the activity rebound in Q1 2024. Weak activity amid continued progress in the disinflationary process, will likely lead the central bank to continue easing monetary policy (with 25-bp rate cuts) in H1 2024, from the current 6.50% down to 5% by July-2024, and staying at that level through year end.”

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