Norway: Economic growth eases in November
January 9, 2020
Economic output expanded 0.9% in November from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, down from October’s 1.4% expansion (previously reported: +1.2% month-on-month seasonally-adjusted). In the rolling quarter September–November period, the total economy increased 0.5% from the previous rolling quarter, after contracting 0.1% contraction in August–October.
Mainland GDP—which excludes hydrocarbon extraction and related transport—expanded 0.1% in November from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, after rising 0.2% in October. In September–November, mainland GDP expanded 0.3% from the previous rolling quarter, down slightly from the 0.4% expansion recorded in August–October.
In November, the external sector was chiefly behind the robust expansion as exports of crude oil and natural gas surged 21.3% month-on-month—mainly due to the Johan Sverdrup offshore oil platform coming online in the month prior. Moreover, both private and government consumption rebounded robustly in November. That said, gross fixed capital formation declined month-on-month, weighing on domestic demand in November.
This year, healthy wage growth and a tight labor market should continue to support household spending, while increased oil and gas extraction from the Johan Sverdrup offshore oil platform should boost investment and exports. Less positively, Norges Bank’s tighter monetary stance last year will likely limit growth in domestic demand.
Author: Steven Burke, Economist