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Norway GDP January 2024

Norway: Economic activity stagnates in January

The Norwegian economy started 2024 on weaker footing; total GDP flatlined in January in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms, slowing from December’s 0.4% expansion. The economy grew 2.1% in the November–January rolling quarter relative to the previous rolling quarter (August–October), improving from the 1.5% increase tallied in October–December.

Meanwhile, the mainland economy—which excludes hydrocarbons and related services—expanded 0.4% in January (December: -0.3% s.a. mom). The upturn smashed both market expectations and Norges Bank’s estimates. During the three months leading up to January, mainland GDP rose 0.2%, waning from the 0.3% rise posted in October–December.

Domestically, the total GDP slowdown was driven by government spending growth flatlining in January and deteriorating from December’s seasonally adjusted 0.6% month-on-month expansion. Moreover, private consumption contracted a steeper 0.4% in the month (December: -0.2% s.a. mom). Similarly, fixed investment also fell at a sharper pace of 5.5% (December: -5.4% s.a. mom).

Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services swung into a 0.7% monthly contraction in January, contrasting December’s 1.8% increase. Conversely, imports of goods and services growth more than doubled to 1.4% from the prior month’s 0.6%.

Our Consensus is for mainland GDP growth to wane sequentially in Q1 from Q4. Meanwhile, panelists see total GDP contracting in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in the three months through March, due largely to a high base effect.

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