Lithuania: GDP growth slows in Q3
November 29, 2013
In the third quarter, GDP grew 2.3% over the same period last year according to revised data published on 29 November. The result was below the 3.8% expansion recorded in the second quarter and just above the 2.2% increase reported in the 30 October flash estimate. The deceleration was driven primarily by weaker exports.
Government consumption also contributed to the slowdown, growing just 0.8% over the same period last year (Q2: +2.0% year-on-year). In contrast, private consumption growth accelerated, growing 6.0% in Q3 (Q2: +5.1% yoy). Fixed investment also improved, expanding 16.9% in Q3 (Q2: +11.2% yoy).
On the external side, exports of goods and services slowed from a 13.9% expansion in the second quarter to a 5.5% rise in the third. Simultaneously, imports rose 7.4% (Q2: +14.8% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth swung from plus 0.2 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 1.2 percentage points in the third.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the deceleration suggested by annual figures; GDP expanded a seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.1% over the previous quarter in Q3, which was down from the 0.6% increase registered in the second quarter.
The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 2.8% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 3.4% this year, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. In 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 3.7%, which is also unchanged from last month's projection.
Author: Carl Kelly, Economist