Serbian town in the winter

Serbia GDP Q3 2023

Serbia: Economic growth picks up in Q3

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% year on year in the third quarter, from 1.7% in the second quarter. The print came in significantly above market expectations.

Absent a full breakdown, monthly data suggests that stronger industrial output spearheaded the acceleration. Meanwhile, lower inflation should have lent some support to household spending.

Looking at trade data, a sharper contraction in imports than in exports points to a positive contribution of the external sector to the reading.

A detailed breakdown is set to be published on 30 November.

Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented on the flash release:

“Although we expected above-consensus acceleration of activity in 3Q, the flash figure beat even our optimistic view. From a sectoral perspective, construction, and agriculture both likely had above average positive contributions to overall GDP in the 3Q. Due to still relatively high inflation, as well as elevated risks on the global geopolitical scene, there is still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the overall pace of recovery.”

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