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Lithuania GDP Q4 2023

Lithuania: Economic growth ticks up in Q4

Economic growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter, with GDP expanding 0.3% on an annual basis (Q3: +0.1% year on year). On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity shrank by 0.3%, weakening from Q3’s flat reading.

Absent a detailed breakdown, Q4’s improvement was likely supported by private spending: Inflation cooled sharply in the quarter and consumer confidence rebounded in Q4 compared to Q3, underpinning a recovery in retail sales in October–December. That said, still-elevated interest rates likely restrained investment, while goods exports data up to December points to persistent headwinds to external demand in the quarter.

Analysts at SEB commented on the outlook:

“The economy is projected to rebound in 2024, albeit moderately, fueled by a recovery in household consumption. Government investments will also support growth, while exports will stagnate due to weak external demand. The situation in the labour market will deteriorate somewhat further. Fiscal policy will be expansionary in 2024. This year’s presidential and parliamentary elections will probably impede the constructive adoption of necessary but unpopular laws.”

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