Kenya GDP Q4 2021


Kenya: Economy expands at an over-decade high in 2021

May 5, 2022

The economy lost steam in the final quarter of 2021, with GDP expanding 7.4% year on year. The result came in below the prior quarter’s 9.3% increase. The outturn brought overall growth for 2021 to 7.5%, as the economy recovered from the pandemic-induced 0.3% contraction in 2020. 2021’s result marked the strongest growth since 2010.

The final quarter’s slowdown was largely due to the all-important agricultural sector’s output declining an annual 1.2% in Q4 (Q3: +0.6% yoy). Additionally, manufacturing activity slowed in the period (Q4: +4.9% yoy; Q3: +10.2% yoy), and activity in the construction sector also decelerated in the final quarter of 2021 (Q4: +6.0% yoy; Q3: +6.7% yoy). Meanwhile, the accommodation and restaurants sector posted a 118.6% expansion, which was below Q3’s 127.5% growth. These all more than offset stronger growth in mining and quarrying, which came in at 34.5% in Q4 (Q3: +16.4% yoy).

Meanwhile, GDP grew 3.0% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4, accelerating from the prior period’s 1.0% expansion. The result marked the strongest print since Q4 2020.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growth at 5.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists forecast GDP growth to come in at 5.1% in 2023.

Author:, Economist

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Kenya GDP Chart

Kenya GDP Q4  2021

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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