Guatemala: Growth in remittances bounces back markedly in October
November 7, 2018
Remittances from workers abroad increased markedly in October, growing 18.6% year-on-year (September: +10.9% year-on-year) and reaching a value of USD 863.5 million—an all-time high—,suggesting that Guatemalan workers in the United States continue to benefit from robust economic momentum. The 12-month moving sum of remittances edged up from USD 8.9 billion in September to USD 9.1 billion in October, which is also a new record high. Growth in the 12-month moving sum was stable at 11.7% in October.
Remittances, a major source of Guatemala’s GDP, tend to follow employment trends in the United States, where most remittances originate. As such, remittances are expected to continue increasing at a healthy pace due to robust growth in the U.S. economy. Uncertainty over U.S. immigration policy remains a downside risk to remittances growth, however.
Guatemala Private Consumption Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption expanding 3.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panelists expect private consumption to increase 3.5%.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist