Guatemala: Annual growth in remittances eases in May but stays strong
June 7, 2018
Year-on-year growth in remittances from workers abroad slowed markedly to 8.2% in May, down from the ten-month high of 20.3% recorded in the prior month. In USD terms, the total value of remittances equaled USD 808.5 million, the highest level on record and linked to the continuation of strong economic momentum in the United States.
The 12-month moving sum of remittances inched up from USD 8.4 billion in April to USD 8.5 billion in May, also marking a record high. Growth in the 12-month moving sum of remittances eased to 11.5% in May from the prior month’s 12.5%.
Over a tenth of Guatemala’s gross domestic product derives from remittances, which are an important source of income for households in the country. The lion’s share of remittances originates in the United States and generally follow U.S. employment trends. The apparent continuation of robust momentum in the U.S. economy bodes well for remittances inflows going forward; however, uncertainty regarding tighter immigration policy remains a downside risk.
Guatemala Private Consumption Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption expanding 3.7% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, our panelists expect private consumption to again increase 3.7%.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist