Ghana: Inflation cools more than anticipated in April but remains red-hot
Inflation came in at 25.1% in April, down from March’s 25.8%. April’s print marginally undershot market expectations but was still more than double the upper bound of the Bank of Ghana (BoG)’s 6.0–10.0% target band. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and beverages rose at a softer pace in April. Moreover, clothing and footwear price growth softened. In contrast, prices for transport grew at a quicker pace.
That said, the moderation in headline largely reflected a favorable base of comparison; on a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.78% in April, accelerating from March’s 0.85% increase, as the cedi depreciated steeply against the U.S. dollar and fuel prices rose.
Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 31.5% in April (March: 32.8%).
Our panelists expect the disinflation to continue and consolidate in the coming quarters. A high base of comparison and a restrictive monetary policy stance will drive the disinflation process. Nevertheless, our Consensus is for inflation to average well above the upper bound of the BoG’s target range throughout the rest of 2024. An upside risk to price pressures is a weaker-than-expected cedi.