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France Inflation May 2023

France: Harmonized inflation drops to one-year low in May

Harmonized inflation came in at 6.0% in May, which was down from April’s 6.9%. May’s result represented the lowest inflation rate since May 2022. The decline was broad-based, with lower price pressures recorded for food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, and housing and utilities.

The trend was unchanged, with annual average harmonized inflation coming in at April’s 6.7% in May. Meanwhile, consumer price inflation fell to 5.1% in May, from the previous month’s 5.9%.

Lastly, harmonized consumer prices fell 0.07% over the previous month in May, contrasting the 0.66% rise recorded in April. May’s result marked the weakest reading since December 2022.

Looking at the outlook, consumer harmonized inflation should slowly ease amid a tougher base effect, the impact of higher interest rates and lower producer price and commodities inflation. In addition, core inflation has stopped increasing for the first time in nine months, and fell from 6.3% in April to 5.8% in May. As such, our panelists believe inflation should converge to the ECB’s 2.0% target by the end of 2024.

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