City skyline in China

China Trade April 2024

China: Merchandise exports increase in April

Merchandise exports rose 1.5% year-on-year in April, on the heels of March’s 7.5% drop and beating market expectations. in April, double-digit growth in exports to ASEAN more than offset lower exports to the U.S. and EU. Looking at subsectors, electronics and vehicles exports rose strongly, Meanwhile, merchandise imports increased 8.4% over the same month last year in April (March: -1.9% yoy).

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 72.4 billion surplus in April (March 2024: USD 58.6 billion surplus; April 2023: USD 85.5 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 812.7 billion surplus in April, compared to the USD 825.3 billion surplus in March.

Merchandise exports should rise slightly in 2024 as a whole relative to 2023, though by less than in neighboring economies such as Taiwan and Korea. This will likely be due to Western trade and tech restrictions on Chinese products, and overcapacity in some Chinese export sectors weighing on export prices.

On the near-term outlook, Nomura analysts said:

“We expect export growth to increase further in May, as some low base effects start to kick in. In our view, exports are likely to provide a meaningful cushion to China’s economy amid the ongoing property fallout and local government debt resolution. As the economy rebalances, […] persistent PPI deflation and a competitive RMB are likely to boost export growth in coming months.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest