China Retail September 2021

China

China: Retail sales growth gains steam in September

October 18, 2021

Retail sales expanded 4.4% year-on-year in September (August: +2.5% yoy). Improved growth in September was likely linked to the taming of the domestic Covid-19 flare-ups which had dampened retail sales in August.

On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, which was above August’s 0.2% uptick. Meanwhile, annual average growth of retail sales was unchanged at August's 14.4% in September. Looking ahead, soft domestic tourism data during the Golden Week holiday in early October bodes poorly for retail sales in the month, and the risk of further stop-start public health restrictions is an important downside risk.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 8.2% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2023, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 8.2%.


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China Retail September 2021 1

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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