China PMI

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China: PMI unexpectedly rises in November

December 1, 2010

The November Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) produced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL) rose by 0.5 percentage points over October to 55.2%. The figure beat market forecasts, which had seen the index remaining flat at 54.7%, and kept the index above the 50% threshold for the eighth month in a row. A reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50% implies a contraction. The improvement was primarily driven by the input prices category, which has been experiencing an upward trend since July, repeating the pattern observed in the previous month. Soaring production costs are likely to be passed through to consumers, especially in a context of resilient domestic demand, and this supports the Central Bank's concerns about inflation overheating. The government expects economic growth to moderate to 8.7% in the fourth quarter, which is widely in line with the Consensus Forecast. For the full year, the panel anticipates GDP expanding 10.0%. For 2011, panellists maintained their growth estimates from last month at 9.0%, which is higher than the 8.0% growth expected by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

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