China Investment December 2021

China

China: Nominal fixed investment growth slides to one-year low in December

January 16, 2022

Nominal urban fixed asset investment rose 4.9% in year-to-date terms in December (November: +5.2%). The figure marked the worst reading since December 2020. The reading came on the back of weaker growth in the tertiary sector. In addition, the primary sector lost pace. As such, investment last year was weak by historical standards, weighed on by regulatory uncertainty and the property downturn. However, high-tech investment was brisk, as part of the government’s aim to catch up to the West in key technological domains.

On a monthly basis, nominal urban fixed asset investment increased 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms in December, matching November’s expansion.

Going forward, the broad picture of strong investment in high-end manufacturing and weaker investment in other areas—particularly housing—is likely to remain.

Our panelists see nominal fixed investment rising 4.8% in 2022, down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in 2023.


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China Investment December 2021

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).


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