Canada Monetary Policy December 2024

Canada: Bank of Canada decreases rates in December

Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 11 December, the Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3.25% from 3.75%, taking rate cuts to 175 basis points this year.

Monetary policy drivers: The decision was driven by a weaker-than-projected economy in Q3 and Q4, rising unemployment and moderate price pressures—inflation has hovered close to 2.0% in recent months.

More easing likely ahead: The Bank of Canada suggested that interest rates would fall further going forward, but didn’t say exactly when or by how much. Our Consensus is currently for the target for the overnight rate to fall to close to 2.5% by the end of 2025, as the Bank looks to support the economy in the face of mild price pressures.

Panelist insight: TD Economics’ James Orlando said:

“We don’t think the BoC will keep cutting at this current pace. The policy rate is in the bank’s ‘neutral’ range (2.25% to 3.25%), which means it probably thinks its rate is no longer weighing on economic growth. The central bank will also be getting more evidence over the coming months that economic growth is stabilizing around trend. Stronger growth will validate that it can cut at a slower pace. If it doesn’t, policy rate differentials with the U.S. will widen even more.”

EIU analysts said:

“We anticipate that the BoC will implement one rate cut per quarter throughout 2025, amounting to a total of 100 basis points of additional easing. This forecast is contingent upon external factors, notably the potential for a trade conflict with the US. The US president-elect, Donald Trump, has proposed imposing tariffs on Canadian exports, which could significantly disrupt trade flows. Although we do not expect the threat to be immediately implemented, should such measures be enacted, the BoC may be compelled to enact further rate cuts to mitigate the adverse effect on Canadian economic growth.”

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