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Canada Housing July 2023

Canada: House prices rise month on month in July; housing starts stay robust

According to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, house prices fell at a more moderate pace of 1.9% in July (June: -5.1% yoy), the best result since December 2022. House prices rose 1.8% month on month in July. The print followed June’s 2.6% increase and marked the fifth straight month of sequential growth.

Meanwhile, housing starts in July were above the Q2 average, boding well for residential investment in Q3.

The latest data suggests that the housing market remains resilient in the face of aggressive monetary tightening, buoyed by strong population growth.

On the outlook for housing starts, TD Economics Rishi Sondhi said:

“Smoothing through the typical volatility associated with the data by looking at the 6-month average shows that starts remain well above pre-pandemic levels, and have picked up some steam in recent months. That said, they are well off their peaks from late last year, driven by lower construction of single-detached units. Moving forward, we think starts will trend lower, as last year’s multi-year lows for home sales feed through into weaker homebuilding. This would be consistent with building permits, which are pointing to a much lower pace for starts.”

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