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Bulgaria GDP Q2 2018

Bulgaria: Growth moderates in Q2 on slower investment, exports

In line with the preliminary estimate, comprehensive data released by the Statistical Institute confirmed growth on an annual basis at a seasonally-adjusted 3.4% in the second quarter, just missing analysts’ expectations and down a couple notches from the 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter.

A breakdown by expenditure showed that fixed investment eased somewhat (Q2: +4.6% yoy s.a.; Q1: +7.0% yoy s.a.) amid looser industrial capacity. Total consumption, meanwhile, accelerated markedly (Q2: +4.8% yoy s.a.; Q1: +3.3% yoy s.a.) which was led by significantly faster household spending—in line with a considerable fall in unemployment and despite sharply higher inflation.

On the external front, the pullback in global trade hit exports of goods and services (Q2: +1.7% yoy s.a.; Q1: +4.4% yoy s.a.) as demand waned across mainland Europe. Imports of goods and services grew roughly in line with the previous quarter (Q2: +4.3% yoy s.a.; Q1: +4.6% yoy s.a.), likely bolstered by demand for intermediate goods.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth in seasonally-adjusted terms inched down to 0.8% in the second quarter from the 0.9% outturn at the outset of the year.

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