Brazil Retail November 2019


Brazil: Retail sales disappoint in November

January 15, 2020

Retail sales, excluding cars and construction, increased 0.6% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in November, up from October’s 0.1% increase but notably underwhelming market analysts who had expected Black Friday sales to boost growth to 1.2%.

The uptick in November was driven by stronger furniture and appliance spending—boosted by Black Friday promotions—and increased pharmaceutical and medical sales. Conversely, sales of clothing and footwear; books and other stationary goods; and fuels and lubricants fell in November.

On an annual basis, retail sales growth eased to 2.9% in November from 4.2% in October. Meanwhile, annual average growth in retail sales softened to 1.6% in November from 1.8% in October.

November’s result, suggests that while private consumption growth will likely have continued to buoy growth in Q4 following the positive Q3 GDP outturn, consumer dynamics remain soft. Alberto Ramos and Gabriel Fritsch, economists at Goldman Sachs, noted that looking ahead, “the outlook for private consumption and retail sales is moderately positive […] but still significant slack in the labor market and subdued consumer confidence may limit the buoyancy of private consumption and retail sales.”

Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect retail sales to increase 2.8% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees retail sales growing 3.0%.

Author:, Economist

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Brazil Retail Chart

Brazil Retail November 2019

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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